Our Equity Top Pick List
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FX - Technical Analysis
The dollar's momentum has eased, but confirming a trend reversal would require a decisive bearish session against the euro. Against the British pound, however, the exchange rate remains in an uptrend. EUR/HUF continues to trade within a narrowing range, while the dollar remains in an uptrend against the forint. USD/JPY has broken out to the upside from its consolidation pattern, suggesting further upside potential. EUR/CHF previously broke below a key support level that had defined its uptrend, and the pair is now characterized by a downtrend.
A constitutional crisis in Poland?
As Poland approaches the 2027 parliamentary elections, political tensions are mounting over disagreements concerning the composition of the Constitutional Tribunal. Moreover, the possibility cannot be ruled out that the governor of the central bank could soon be suspended from office in connection with a separate case, potentially deepening the political divide further. Against this backdrop, following an almost uninterrupted rally in recent months, the Polish stock market appears to be losing momentum, while the zloty has weakened to a three-year low against the euro. The domestic political situation may well have further surprises in store, while the Polish equity market, despite its strong performance so far this year, can no longer be considered particularly cheap.
We have updated our Equity Top Pick List to reflect the events of the past quarter. The list includes those stocks, typically US and European ones, that we consider to be proper investment choices from a fundamental point of view. It can provide a starting point for building a sector-diversified equity exposure in portfolios, but can also be used as a watch list. Technical analysis should be used to time / determine the specific investment decision.
Given the fundamental selection process, the stocks on the list should be treated as longer-term investment opportunities, but are reviewed on a quarterly basis to check whether the stock is on track with our original expectations or whether there is a sector peer with a better risk/return profile. We note that that our latest Investment Outlook recommends neutral overall exposure to the equity asset class.
Over the past quarter, we have removed the stocks of Ero Copper, Albemarle, and PayPal from our list. The latest analyses of the stocks that are still on our list are available at the links below:
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