Oil companies are in the crosshairs because of Venezuela
Related content
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold has almost reached its all-time high and may form a lower peak. A break below 4375 would be a significant change in the upward trend. Silver is also correcting after a hyperbolic rise, with 71.8 acting as a watershed between the long and short sides. The narrowing of oil may end, and it may decide to break through 56.25 and continue its short trend, or we may only see an attempt to break through. Natural gas has returned to the buying zone, but has not yet begun to form a reversal pattern. The rise in copper prices has reached the calculated level, but a reversal pattern has not yet formed. Wheat has retested the 500 level, and a break in its downward trend could trigger an upward trajectory. As long as corn prices remain above 437, long-side trading can be maintained, but there is no great potential.
4.5% deficit is projected for 2025, and 5% for this year as goverment measures kick in
After many years of 7-8% deficit, an adjustment was made in 2024, despite the unfavourable macroeconomic environment. This brought the deficit down to 4-5% of GDP, which could be considered as an average level in regional comparison. In Q3, the four-quarter deficit stagnated at 3.4% of GDP, supported by the surprisingly low deficit in Q2, which could result in a marginally lower figure (4.5%) for 2025 as a whole than the 5% deficit target, even in case of a really high deficit in the fourth quarter. In 2026, even with the recently announced government measures, the 5% deficit target could be met due to lower interest expenses, and strict cost control in the case of operating expenses and investments.
The events in Venezuela have put energy sector stocks in the spotlight. Stocks of companies involved in restoring oil infrastructure were already on an upward trend at the end of the year, but SLB and Halliburton stocks are looking particularly good.
Best rated US stocks based on momentum ranking
Compelling technical picture:
SLB Limited (daily): The turnaround from the long-term downward trend began earlier, in early November. The breakout and retest of 37.5 set the stage for a long trend. Current events have only reinforced the processes that were already underway. Despite the expected rise today, there may still be strength in the stock, and the previous peak may also be targeted.
Halliburton Company (daily): The turnaround, which indicates a high-quality rise, began at the end of October with the gap left open. Since then, it has been characterized by an upward trend, which may shift to a steeper slope in the coming days. Despite the expected rise today, buying opportunities can be found in retests, with the target price here also reaching around 43.75, as in previous years, but since the stock hit a higher low in 2025 compared to the 2020 low, higher target prices may also emerge.
List of stocks with a chance of a turnaround in the coming weeks
Most popular US stocks
The momentum model supports the creation of a technical based stock list that helps to find shorter-term trading opportunities. The model can be used to identify stocks that show reversal signals following more sustained falls/underperformance. We examine one-year, six-month, three-month, one-month and five-day momentum values, which are used to rank the stocks under consideration. The higher a stock is ranked in the order, the better it technically performs relative to the others. The change in the ranking over time is used to determine the life cycle of the stock.
- In the first table, we collect the stocks that show the most attractive picture compared to the others in a given week based on momentum factors, of which those are also presented in a separate chart where a favourable situation can be identified based on additional technical analysis tools.
- In the second table, we list the stocks that are already worthy of being placed in watchlist status. They are not among the best performers, but they have the potential to improve and signal a turnaround in a few days or weeks.
- In the third table, we have also collected the more popular stocks to help identify their position in the momentum order.
The report shows the results of a technical - quantitative based stock screening, which does not examine the fundamental background/value of the companies. For this reason, risk management/position sizing rules should be designed accordingly.
Get more out of your investments!
Global Markets Services
OTP Global Markets offers a board range of services in the field of local and international money and capital markets.
Read morePrivate Banking Services
Personal care and expertise with OTP Private Banking, along with the knowledge, security, and innovations of a multinational banking group.
Read more