The Portuguese oil company has broken out from a classic trend-confirmation pattern
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After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
Up until the beginning of last week, a favorable technical picture had been emerging across European markets. However, Wednesday’s sudden reversal significantly altered the outlook. The key question in the coming days will be whether the major support levels can hold, or whether their breakdown will lead to the formation of new swing lows. Amid the uncertain market environment, shares in the more defensive healthcare sector have once again gained prominence, while rising oil prices have also supported the performance of energy companies. A particularly favorable, trend-confirming chart pattern has emerged in the stock of Galp, Portugal’s largest integrated energy company, while the share price of Germany’s Fresenius Medical Care is increasingly showing signs of a potential trend reversal.
Best rated European stocks based on momentum ranking
Compelling technical picture:
Galp (daily): A classic trend-confirmation pattern has formed, from which the stock broke out to the upside with a gap one week ago. As a result, the 18.75 level appears to be an appropriate place for risk management initially. Based on the projected price target derived from this trend-confirmation, prices above 25 also seem attainable.
Fresenius Medical (daily): The long-term downtrend has been broken, generating a reversal signal on the chart. The stock has already completed a successful retest of the breakout level, and the formation of a new swing high confirms that it is now in a bullish trend, increasing the likelihood of further upside. Risk management can be based on a break below the thick green trendline. The price target may reach the 50–53 range.
List of stocks with a chance of a turnaround in the coming weeks
Most popular European stocks
The momentum model supports the creation of a technical based stock list that helps to find shorter-term trading opportunities. The model can be used to identify stocks that show reversal signals following more sustained falls/underperformance. We examine one-year, six-month, three-month, one-month and five-day momentum values, which are used to rank the stocks under consideration. The higher a stock is ranked in the order, the better it technically performs relative to the others. The change in the ranking over time is used to determine the life cycle of the stock.
- In the first table, we collect the stocks that show the most attractive picture compared to the others in a given week based on momentum factors, of which those are also presented in a separate chart where a favourable situation can be identified based on additional technical analysis tools.
- In the second table, we list the stocks that are already worthy of being placed in watchlist status. They are not among the best performers, but they have the potential to improve and signal a turnaround in a few days or weeks.
- In the third table, we have also collected the more popular stocks to help identify their position in the momentum order.
The report shows the results of a technical - quantitative based stock screening, which does not examine the fundamental background/value of the companies. For this reason, risk management/position sizing rules should be designed accordingly.
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