Strengthening Bullish Momentum Emerges in Mosaic
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Our Equity Top Pick List
We have updated our Equity Top Pick List to reflect the events of the past quarter. The list includes those stocks, typically US and European ones, that we consider to be proper investment choices from a fundamental point of view. It can provide a starting point for building a sector-diversified equity exposure in portfolios, but can also be used as a watch list. Technical analysis should be used to time / determine the specific investment decision.
Could the momentum return in the semiconductors?
The semiconductor sector has had a challenging quarter, with its performance in recent months lagging behind improvements in underlying fundamentals, even as AI-driven demand remained exceptionally strong. The accelerating adoption of AI by enterprises and the proliferation of AI agents are significantly increasing the demand for computing capacity, which points to a further surge in cloud services and data center investments. Given current supply constraints, record-high backlogs, and higher-than-expected investment needs, we expect further upward revisions to earnings forecasts in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation appears favorable from a historical perspective, which, in our view, could result in a more attractive risk-return profile in the coming months.
Last Tuesday, the markets faced the prospect of a deeper downturn. No momentum-based buy signals appeared at the time; instead, price action pointed to broad-based weakness. Ultimately, however, a more serious sell-off was avoided, and the second half of the week saw a moderate recovery. Even so, many individual stocks suffered technical damage significant enough to justify closing longer-term long positions. The subsequent rebound lacked the strength needed to generate fresh, decisive momentum across the markets. From the week’s technical screens, only one stock stood out: Mosaic, which at current levels may offer an attractive risk-reward entry opportunity.
Best rated US stocks based on momentum ranking
Compelling technical picture
Mosaic Company (daily chart): The long-term chart continues to signal a prevailing downtrend, yet within this broader structure a clear shift is beginning to take shape. The area around $25 has once again proven to be strong support. In early January, the price failed to make a new low, and increasingly pronounced accumulation signs have appeared. The downtrend would be broken above $31.25. A breakout there could quickly open up the upside: $37.5 would be a readily attainable target, while the $50 level is also a realistic scenario — though it would require a clearly identifiable bullish reversal pattern to develop. From a risk-management perspective, a daily close below $25 would mark the critical invalidation level. Given the current structure, the reward-to-risk profile appears particularly favorable.
List of stocks with a chance of a turnaround in the coming weeks
Most popular US stocks
The momentum model supports the creation of a technical based stock list that helps to find shorter-term trading opportunities. The model can be used to identify stocks that show reversal signals following more sustained falls/underperformance. We examine one-year, six-month, three-month, one-month and five-day momentum values, which are used to rank the stocks under consideration. The higher a stock is ranked in the order, the better it technically performs relative to the others. The change in the ranking over time is used to determine the life cycle of the stock.
- In the first table, we collect the stocks that show the most attractive picture compared to the others in a given week based on momentum factors, of which those are also presented in a separate chart where a favourable situation can be identified based on additional technical analysis tools.
- In the second table, we list the stocks that are already worthy of being placed in watchlist status. They are not among the best performers, but they have the potential to improve and signal a turnaround in a few days or weeks.
- In the third table, we have also collected the more popular stocks to help identify their position in the momentum order.
The report shows the results of a technical - quantitative based stock screening, which does not examine the fundamental background/value of the companies. For this reason, risk management/position sizing rules should be designed accordingly.
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