Strengthening Bullish Momentum Emerges in Mosaic
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Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver have broken their downtrends, triggering upward waves that still hold potential for further gains. After a strong retest, the oil price may settle into a range, but there are still opportunities for further gains. Natural gas prices did not reach a new low, but no pattern indicating a reversal has yet emerged. Copper is maintaining its upward trend; it must rise again within the next few days, or the rally could break down. Wheat and corn are also beginning to turn upward again from key support levels after strong retests.
Strong performance from Expedia
Despite the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices, U.S. consumer spending—and, by extension, travel DEMAND—proved to be sufficiently resilient in the second quarter, from which Expedia also benefited greatly. The company beat analysts’ expectations across all major metrics, with revenue growing by 14%, while also successfully maintaining its strategic goal of cost control, resulting in profit growth of over 20%. Cash generation is very strong, which is being used to repurchase shares, and for now, there's no sign of a slowdown on the demand side, leading the company to raise their full-year expectations for this year. Given the improving fundamentals, we are raising our fair value estimate to $365.
Last Tuesday, the markets faced the prospect of a deeper downturn. No momentum-based buy signals appeared at the time; instead, price action pointed to broad-based weakness. Ultimately, however, a more serious sell-off was avoided, and the second half of the week saw a moderate recovery. Even so, many individual stocks suffered technical damage significant enough to justify closing longer-term long positions. The subsequent rebound lacked the strength needed to generate fresh, decisive momentum across the markets. From the week’s technical screens, only one stock stood out: Mosaic, which at current levels may offer an attractive risk-reward entry opportunity.
Best rated US stocks based on momentum ranking
Compelling technical picture
Mosaic Company (daily chart): The long-term chart continues to signal a prevailing downtrend, yet within this broader structure a clear shift is beginning to take shape. The area around $25 has once again proven to be strong support. In early January, the price failed to make a new low, and increasingly pronounced accumulation signs have appeared. The downtrend would be broken above $31.25. A breakout there could quickly open up the upside: $37.5 would be a readily attainable target, while the $50 level is also a realistic scenario — though it would require a clearly identifiable bullish reversal pattern to develop. From a risk-management perspective, a daily close below $25 would mark the critical invalidation level. Given the current structure, the reward-to-risk profile appears particularly favorable.
List of stocks with a chance of a turnaround in the coming weeks
Most popular US stocks
The momentum model supports the creation of a technical based stock list that helps to find shorter-term trading opportunities. The model can be used to identify stocks that show reversal signals following more sustained falls/underperformance. We examine one-year, six-month, three-month, one-month and five-day momentum values, which are used to rank the stocks under consideration. The higher a stock is ranked in the order, the better it technically performs relative to the others. The change in the ranking over time is used to determine the life cycle of the stock.
- In the first table, we collect the stocks that show the most attractive picture compared to the others in a given week based on momentum factors, of which those are also presented in a separate chart where a favourable situation can be identified based on additional technical analysis tools.
- In the second table, we list the stocks that are already worthy of being placed in watchlist status. They are not among the best performers, but they have the potential to improve and signal a turnaround in a few days or weeks.
- In the third table, we have also collected the more popular stocks to help identify their position in the momentum order.
The report shows the results of a technical - quantitative based stock screening, which does not examine the fundamental background/value of the companies. For this reason, risk management/position sizing rules should be designed accordingly.
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