US earnings season kicks off this week
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Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver have broken their downtrends, triggering upward waves that still hold potential for further gains. After a strong retest, the oil price may settle into a range, but there are still opportunities for further gains. Natural gas prices did not reach a new low, but no pattern indicating a reversal has yet emerged. Copper is maintaining its upward trend; it must rise again within the next few days, or the rally could break down. Wheat and corn are also beginning to turn upward again from key support levels after strong retests.
Strong performance from Expedia
Despite the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices, U.S. consumer spending—and, by extension, travel DEMAND—proved to be sufficiently resilient in the second quarter, from which Expedia also benefited greatly. The company beat analysts’ expectations across all major metrics, with revenue growing by 14%, while also successfully maintaining its strategic goal of cost control, resulting in profit growth of over 20%. Cash generation is very strong, which is being used to repurchase shares, and for now, there's no sign of a slowdown on the demand side, leading the company to raise their full-year expectations for this year. Given the improving fundamentals, we are raising our fair value estimate to $365.
The fourth quarter US earnings reporting season kicks off this week, with market participants likely to focus primarily on the reports of major US banks. JP Morgan will release its latest figures on Tuesday, Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis will also publish its latest Sales Report on Thursday, January 15.
The fourth quarter earnings season will soon begin in the US this week. According to FactSet, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter is 8.3% (year-on-year), However, 57 companies among the index components have published negative EPS guidance for the fourth quarter, while 50 companies have published positive guidance.
As of Monday midday, ~3% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already published their latest figures, with these companies reporting revenues 1.9% above expectations on average. In terms of revenues, 76.5% of companies that have published their earnings reports so far have delivered positive surprises, while 11.8% have delivered negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 18.3% above expectations; 88% of the companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 12% caused negative surprises. Of the components of the Stoxx600 index, only two companies have published their latest earnings reports so far.
Delta Air Lines and JP Morgan will be the first to publish their latest figures on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis' fourth quarter Sales Report will also be released on Thursday. In the week beginning January 19, Netflix and Intel, among others, will release their earnings reports from the United States.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.16.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.19 – 01.23.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.26 – 01.31.
S&P500 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
Stoxx600 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
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