US earnings season kicks off this week
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The government crisis is over – what lies ahead for Romania?
Romania has experienced five turbulent months on the domestic political front. Nevertheless, after several prime ministerial candidates failed to secure parliamentary support, a new government was finally formed in late October. The Romanian equity market, which had performed strongly during the first half of the year, lost momentum towards the end of August and entered a downward correction in September. It then rebounded in October, partly reflecting the reduced risks of a snap election and a sovereign rating downgrade to below investment grade. While domestic political tensions have subsided, the BET index has yet to recover to the vicinity of its August peak. At the same time, Romanian equities no longer appear particularly inexpensive from a valuation perspective.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Signs of a turnaround have emerged for gold and silver, and a strong upward move could trigger the next upward wave. A breakout above the key downtrend lines could also be on the horizon, which would further reinforce the positive turnaround. The price of oil has broken below the 100-day moving average, weakening the bullish outlook, and with the uptrend broken, it has entered a correction phase. Natural gas is showing a correction following a sharp decline, but has not yet managed to break through its downtrend line. Copper continues to trade within a wide range and is approaching the lower end of that range. Following a significant decline, wheat and corn prices have reached key support levels from which an upward correction—or even a new uptrend—is likely to begin.
The fourth quarter US earnings reporting season kicks off this week, with market participants likely to focus primarily on the reports of major US banks. JP Morgan will release its latest figures on Tuesday, Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis will also publish its latest Sales Report on Thursday, January 15.
The fourth quarter earnings season will soon begin in the US this week. According to FactSet, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter is 8.3% (year-on-year), However, 57 companies among the index components have published negative EPS guidance for the fourth quarter, while 50 companies have published positive guidance.
As of Monday midday, ~3% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already published their latest figures, with these companies reporting revenues 1.9% above expectations on average. In terms of revenues, 76.5% of companies that have published their earnings reports so far have delivered positive surprises, while 11.8% have delivered negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 18.3% above expectations; 88% of the companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 12% caused negative surprises. Of the components of the Stoxx600 index, only two companies have published their latest earnings reports so far.
Delta Air Lines and JP Morgan will be the first to publish their latest figures on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis' fourth quarter Sales Report will also be released on Thursday. In the week beginning January 19, Netflix and Intel, among others, will release their earnings reports from the United States.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.16.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.19 – 01.23.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.26 – 01.31.
S&P500 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
Stoxx600 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
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