US earnings season kicks off this week
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After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
The fourth quarter US earnings reporting season kicks off this week, with market participants likely to focus primarily on the reports of major US banks. JP Morgan will release its latest figures on Tuesday, Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis will also publish its latest Sales Report on Thursday, January 15.
The fourth quarter earnings season will soon begin in the US this week. According to FactSet, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter is 8.3% (year-on-year), However, 57 companies among the index components have published negative EPS guidance for the fourth quarter, while 50 companies have published positive guidance.
As of Monday midday, ~3% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already published their latest figures, with these companies reporting revenues 1.9% above expectations on average. In terms of revenues, 76.5% of companies that have published their earnings reports so far have delivered positive surprises, while 11.8% have delivered negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 18.3% above expectations; 88% of the companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 12% caused negative surprises. Of the components of the Stoxx600 index, only two companies have published their latest earnings reports so far.
Delta Air Lines and JP Morgan will be the first to publish their latest figures on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis' fourth quarter Sales Report will also be released on Thursday. In the week beginning January 19, Netflix and Intel, among others, will release their earnings reports from the United States.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.16.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.19 – 01.23.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.26 – 01.31.
S&P500 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
Stoxx600 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
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