US earnings season kicks off this week
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Our Equity Top Pick List
We have updated our Equity Top Pick List to reflect the events of the past quarter. The list includes those stocks, typically US and European ones, that we consider to be proper investment choices from a fundamental point of view. It can provide a starting point for building a sector-diversified equity exposure in portfolios, but can also be used as a watch list. Technical analysis should be used to time / determine the specific investment decision.
Could the momentum return in the semiconductors?
The semiconductor sector has had a challenging quarter, with its performance in recent months lagging behind improvements in underlying fundamentals, even as AI-driven demand remained exceptionally strong. The accelerating adoption of AI by enterprises and the proliferation of AI agents are significantly increasing the demand for computing capacity, which points to a further surge in cloud services and data center investments. Given current supply constraints, record-high backlogs, and higher-than-expected investment needs, we expect further upward revisions to earnings forecasts in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation appears favorable from a historical perspective, which, in our view, could result in a more attractive risk-return profile in the coming months.
The fourth quarter US earnings reporting season kicks off this week, with market participants likely to focus primarily on the reports of major US banks. JP Morgan will release its latest figures on Tuesday, Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis will also publish its latest Sales Report on Thursday, January 15.
The fourth quarter earnings season will soon begin in the US this week. According to FactSet, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter is 8.3% (year-on-year), However, 57 companies among the index components have published negative EPS guidance for the fourth quarter, while 50 companies have published positive guidance.
As of Monday midday, ~3% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already published their latest figures, with these companies reporting revenues 1.9% above expectations on average. In terms of revenues, 76.5% of companies that have published their earnings reports so far have delivered positive surprises, while 11.8% have delivered negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 18.3% above expectations; 88% of the companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 12% caused negative surprises. Of the components of the Stoxx600 index, only two companies have published their latest earnings reports so far.
Delta Air Lines and JP Morgan will be the first to publish their latest figures on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. AutoWallis' fourth quarter Sales Report will also be released on Thursday. In the week beginning January 19, Netflix and Intel, among others, will release their earnings reports from the United States.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.16.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.19 – 01.23.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.26 – 01.31.
S&P500 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
Stoxx600 fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.01.12 – 01.31.
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