US earnings season kicked off this week
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After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
This week, the first-quarter earnings season kicked off in the US with Delta Air Lines’ results, and in the first half of next week, investors will be focusing on the latest figures from major US banks. On April 13, Goldman Sachs will report, followed a day later by Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo. There will be few earnings reports from Europe next week; ASML will publish its latest figures on April 15, while among Hungarian companies, PannErgy’s first-quarter production report and AutoWallis’s latest sales report are expected next week.
The first-quarter earnings season has kicked off in the US this week; according to FactSet, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the first quarter could be 13.2% (year-over-year), among the index components, 51 companies have issued negative EPS forecasts for the first quarter, while 59 have issued positive ones.
As of Thursday morning, approximately 3% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already released their latest figures; In terms of revenue, these companies reported an average of 3.9% above expectations; 70.6% of the companies that have released their earnings reports so far delivered a positive surprise, while 5.9% delivered a negative surprise. In terms of EPS, companies that have released their earnings reports so far have, on average, reported earnings 17.5% above expectations; 70.6% of the companies that have reported so far delivered a positive surprise, while 17.7% delivered a negative one. Among the components of the Stoxx 600 index, only two companies have published their latest earnings reports so far.
Next week, major US banks will release their earnings reports in the first half of the week: Goldman Sachs on Monday, followed by Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday. There are few earnings reports coming out of Europe for now, but ASML will publish its report next week, while among Hungarian companies, PannErgy’s first-quarter production report and AutoWallis’s latest sales report are expected next week.
First quarter earnings dates – 2026.04.06. – 04.10.
First quarter earnings dates - 2026.04.13. – 04.17.
First quarter earnings dates - 2026.04.20. – 04.24.
S&P500 first quarter earnings dates – 2026. 04.08. – 04.24.
Stoxx600 first quarter earnings dates – 2026. 04.08. – 04.24.
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