The earnings season continues
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After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
The fourth-quarter earnings season continues in the US. Walt Disney, PayPal, Uber, and Amazon, among others, will publish their latest figures in the first week of February. Meanwhile, Infineon and Novo Nordisk, among others, will publish their earnings reports from Europe in the coming week.
As of Friday noon, 31% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already published their latest figures, with these companies reporting revenues 1.4% above expectations on average. In terms of revenues, 60.1% of companies that have published their earnings reports so far have delivered positive surprises, while 23.5% have delivered negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 9.9% above expectations; 79.1% of companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 15.6% caused negative surprises.
Among the components of the Stoxx600 index, 11% of companies have published their earnings reports so far. With these companies reporting revenues 0.7% above expectations on average, of the companies that have published their earnings reports so far, 50.9% caused positive surprises, while 30.2% caused negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 1.6% above expectations; 54.6% of the companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 36.4% caused negative surprises.
In the first week of February, US companies such as PayPal, Uber, Amazon, and Walt Disney will report, while in Europe, Infineon and Novo Nordisk, among others, will publish their latest figures. In the week of February 9, Ford, Coca-Cola, and McDonald's, among others, will publish their reports from the United States.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.02.02. – 02.06.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.02.09. – 02.13.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.02.16. – 02.20.
S&P500 fourth quarter earnings dates - 2026. 02.02. - 02.20.
Stoxx600 fourth quarter earnings dates - 2026. 02.02. - 02.20.
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