The earnings season continues
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The government crisis is over – what lies ahead for Romania?
Romania has experienced five turbulent months on the domestic political front. Nevertheless, after several prime ministerial candidates failed to secure parliamentary support, a new government was finally formed in late October. The Romanian equity market, which had performed strongly during the first half of the year, lost momentum towards the end of August and entered a downward correction in September. It then rebounded in October, partly reflecting the reduced risks of a snap election and a sovereign rating downgrade to below investment grade. While domestic political tensions have subsided, the BET index has yet to recover to the vicinity of its August peak. At the same time, Romanian equities no longer appear particularly inexpensive from a valuation perspective.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Signs of a turnaround have emerged for gold and silver, and a strong upward move could trigger the next upward wave. A breakout above the key downtrend lines could also be on the horizon, which would further reinforce the positive turnaround. The price of oil has broken below the 100-day moving average, weakening the bullish outlook, and with the uptrend broken, it has entered a correction phase. Natural gas is showing a correction following a sharp decline, but has not yet managed to break through its downtrend line. Copper continues to trade within a wide range and is approaching the lower end of that range. Following a significant decline, wheat and corn prices have reached key support levels from which an upward correction—or even a new uptrend—is likely to begin.
The fourth-quarter earnings season continues in the US. Walt Disney, PayPal, Uber, and Amazon, among others, will publish their latest figures in the first week of February. Meanwhile, Infineon and Novo Nordisk, among others, will publish their earnings reports from Europe in the coming week.
As of Friday noon, 31% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 had already published their latest figures, with these companies reporting revenues 1.4% above expectations on average. In terms of revenues, 60.1% of companies that have published their earnings reports so far have delivered positive surprises, while 23.5% have delivered negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 9.9% above expectations; 79.1% of companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 15.6% caused negative surprises.
Among the components of the Stoxx600 index, 11% of companies have published their earnings reports so far. With these companies reporting revenues 0.7% above expectations on average, of the companies that have published their earnings reports so far, 50.9% caused positive surprises, while 30.2% caused negative surprises. In terms of EPS, companies that have published their earnings reports so far reported an average of 1.6% above expectations; 54.6% of the companies that have reported so far caused positive surprises, while 36.4% caused negative surprises.
In the first week of February, US companies such as PayPal, Uber, Amazon, and Walt Disney will report, while in Europe, Infineon and Novo Nordisk, among others, will publish their latest figures. In the week of February 9, Ford, Coca-Cola, and McDonald's, among others, will publish their reports from the United States.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.02.02. – 02.06.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.02.09. – 02.13.
Fourth quarter earnings dates – 2026.02.16. – 02.20.
S&P500 fourth quarter earnings dates - 2026. 02.02. - 02.20.
Stoxx600 fourth quarter earnings dates - 2026. 02.02. - 02.20.
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