The energy sector remains the winner
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After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
We have seen significant declines in the markets; the downturn is practically universal, so the model yields almost no results in such situations, as most stocks are trending downward and momentum is pointing toward further declines. Nevertheless, there are always winners; due to the crisis, the energy sector continues to perform well, with Norwegian and British companies at the top of the list, though unfortunately these have already seen significant gains. Among the others, Verbund AG has made its presence felt; it is a major energy company majority-owned by the Austrian government, serving as Austria’s leading electricity provider and one of Europe’s largest hydroelectric power generators, producing electricity almost entirely from renewable energy sources.
Best rated European stocks based on momentum ranking
Compelling technical picture
Verbund (daily): Before breaking the downtrend, the chart left a gap behind, which is a very good sign since it hasn’t been filled. We’re seeing upward days accompanied by strong volume, which could lead to a minor retest. The area around 62.5 should hold the decline; otherwise, the reversal could fizzle out. For this to happen, however, the price would need to close below 59.4, which could thus serve as the initial stop level. Consequently, a long position can be opened with low risk around the 62.5 level. The target price could be 81.25, above which a gap may halt the upward movement.
List of stocks with a chance of a turnaround in the coming weeks
The model did not return any results.
Most popular European stocks
The momentum model supports the creation of a technical based stock list that helps to find shorter-term trading opportunities. The model can be used to identify stocks that show reversal signals following more sustained falls/underperformance. We examine one-year, six-month, three-month, one-month and five-day momentum values, which are used to rank the stocks under consideration. The higher a stock is ranked in the order, the better it technically performs relative to the others. The change in the ranking over time is used to determine the life cycle of the stock.
- In the first table, we collect the stocks that show the most attractive picture compared to the others in a given week based on momentum factors, of which those are also presented in a separate chart where a favourable situation can be identified based on additional technical analysis tools.
- In the second table, we list the stocks that are already worthy of being placed in watchlist status. They are not among the best performers, but they have the potential to improve and signal a turnaround in a few days or weeks.
- In the third table, we have also collected the more popular stocks to help identify their position in the momentum order.
The report shows the results of a technical - quantitative based stock screening, which does not examine the fundamental background/value of the companies. For this reason, risk management/position sizing rules should be designed accordingly.
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