Don’t look for excitement in the foreign exchange market; movements lack momentum and show no clear trend. The dollar is trading above the natural level of 1.1597 but below 1.1660 against the euro; it should break out of this range to provide a signal. The pound is also stuck against the dollar, so we are waiting for a signal. The forint’s strengthening momentum is beginning to subside against both the euro and the dollar, but there are no signs yet of a sustained reversal. For the USD/JPY currency pair, 162.5 could be the target above the 159.38 level. The EUR/CHF exchange rate may see a higher low, which could signal an upward reversal.
In Q1 2026, Hungary's gross domestic product grew by 1.7% year-on-year (unadjusted), which is in line with the preliminary estimate. As a reminder: the preliminary GDP growth data was higher both than our forecast and the market consensus (both was around 1.2% YoY). On a quarterly basis, in Q1 GDP growth accelerated from 0.2% to 0.8% according to KSH’s data. Our in-house seasonal adjustment shows the acceleration of growth was somewhat lower as the QoQ rate rose from 0.3% to 0.7%. Non-farm GDP and non-farm private sector’s GDP rose by 1.7 and 1.6% year-onyear, respectively. After many years of subdued growth performance, Q1 figures looks promising.
Minor corrections were quickly broken to the upside by U.S. indices. As a result, the upward trends remain intact. A more sustained trend reversal would require a clear break in the upward trends and possibly the formation of reversal patterns, but there is no sign of this yet. European stock markets also joined the positive wave, but were unable to reach historic highs. For their uptrends to break, reversal patterns would need to form here as well. The correction in the emerging markets index did not last long either; due to the new swing high, the uptrend remains intact, with a change expected later.
Given the new high reached in recent days, a structural shift has not yet occurred. For that to happen, a lower high would still be needed, which could take weeks; in the meantime, 7,656 and 7,813 may serve as natural resistance levels where a pause or correction is expected. On the downside, the 7,188 and 7,031 levels could serve as important support due to previous peaks.
Resistance levels: 7,656; 7,813.
Support levels: 6,875; 6,563; 6,250; 5,937; 5,781; 5,625.
The correction following the 29,688 level was followed by a new high in recent days, so a lower high would be needed for a structural shift. Until then, the price may find resistance at 30,469 and 31,250. A break of the short dashed line could trigger another correction, but a pattern indicating a sustained reversal has not yet formed. Stronger support lies around 26,562, near the previous peak.
Resistance levels: 29,688; 30,469; 31,250.
Support levels: 27,344; 26,172; 25,781; 25,000..
Even the small-cap index couldn’t resist the overall positive sentiment. The main trend is upward and has been confirmed by a new swing high. The 2,813 level could already be a watershed between the long and short sides. A break below this level would be problematic, opening the way toward the lowest upward gap (2,578). The nearest natural resistance level may be at 2,968.
Resistance levels: 2,968; 3,125.
Support levels: 2.813; 2,734; 2,656; 2,578; 2,500.
The trend was saved at the last minute, and this index was pushed to a new swing high. There is still an upward gap open at the 25,000 level; this could serve as short-term support that must hold, otherwise a new correction phase could begin. On the upside, 25,781 and 26,563 could act as resistance levels. On the downside, 22,656 and 21,875 are strong support levels.
Resistance levels: 25,000; 25,781.
Support levels: 22,656; 21,875; 21,093; 20,313.
Despite the new swing high, the all-time high has not yet been broken. A break in the ideal uptrend would signal the end of the long-term trend, but this is not currently the case. The trend would break at the 609.4 level. On the upside, the 640.6 and 656 levels could be reached. Strong support awaits at 562 in the first instance.
Resistance levels: 625; 640.6; 656.3.
Support levels: 594; 562; 531; 515.6; 500; 484.
This index also quickly erased the minor correction by breaking the downtrend and reaching a new swing high. There is now a large gap to the upside, which would be difficult to fill, but here too, the fact remains that until we see a lower, clearly defined peak, a sustained reversal pattern will not be able to form. 68.75 is a resistance level; above that, the next one lies at 71.88.
Resistance levels: 68.75; 71.88.
Support levels: 56.25; 50; 48.43; 46.9.
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