Romania has experienced five turbulent months on the domestic political front. Nevertheless, after several prime ministerial candidates failed to secure parliamentary support, a new government was finally formed in late October. The Romanian equity market, which had performed strongly during the first half of the year, lost momentum towards the end of August and entered a downward correction in September. It then rebounded in October, partly reflecting the reduced risks of a snap election and a sovereign rating downgrade to below investment grade. While domestic political tensions have subsided, the BET index has yet to recover to the vicinity of its August peak. At the same time, Romanian equities no longer appear particularly inexpensive from a valuation perspective.
Signs of a turnaround have emerged for gold and silver, and a strong upward move could trigger the next upward wave. A breakout above the key downtrend lines could also be on the horizon, which would further reinforce the positive turnaround. The price of oil has broken below the 100-day moving average, weakening the bullish outlook, and with the uptrend broken, it has entered a correction phase. Natural gas is showing a correction following a sharp decline, but has not yet managed to break through its downtrend line. Copper continues to trade within a wide range and is approaching the lower end of that range. Following a significant decline, wheat and corn prices have reached key support levels from which an upward correction—or even a new uptrend—is likely to begin.
The dollar has remained strong in recent days, so the dollar’s strength has continued to dominate its major currency pairs; there are no signs of a reversal in this regard yet. As for the forint, a minor correction began three weeks ago, but neither its magnitude nor its intensity was sufficient to suggest a prolonged depreciation of the forint. The USD/JPY exchange rate broke through the 162.5 level, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the EUR/CHF exchange rate also surpassed the nearest resistance zone, keeping the pair on an upward trend.
Due to vacation, there will be no analysis next week. The next article will be published on August 12, 2026.
The exchange rate is consolidating between the 1.1352 and 1.1475 levels. Until it breaks through one of these levels, a stronger move will not be able to take hold. The main trend is still downward, so as long as the trendline holds, the path downwards will be easier; if 1.1352 is broken, the next support level is around 1.1230.
Resistance levels: 1.1719; 1.1841; 1.1962; 1.2085; 1.2207; 1.2329; 1.2451.
Support levels: 1,1352; 1.1230.
Due to the strength of the dollar, the upward trend in price movement has been broken, and the price may be targeting the bottom of the wide trading range. There is a key support level at 1.3184. To resume an upward move, the price would need to break above the thick red trendline.
Resistance levels: 1.3672; 1.3916; 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3184; 1.2939; 1.2812; 1.2695.
After breaking the downtrend, the exchange rate approached the first resistance level at 367.1, but ultimately turned downward sooner than expected. In the event of an uptrend, it is still worth factoring in this resistance level. On the downside, 359.4 and 355.5 are key support levels; these should hold the price from falling further. There are no signs of a major breakout; movement within the range mentioned is likely.
Resistance levels: 375; 382,8; 390,6.
Support levels: 359.4; 355.5; 351.56; 343.75; 335.9; 328.1.
The slight strengthening of the forint that followed a test of the natural support level around 320.4 actually pushed the curve away from the longer-term downtrend line. If the support level around 312.5 holds the decline, the downtrend could break within weeks. If it does break below this level, however, the support level around 304 could be reached.
Resistance levels: 320.4; 328.1; 343.75; 351.5; 359.38.
Support levels: 312.5; 304.7, 296; 289.2; 281.25.
The main trend is upward, and no pattern indicating a reversal has appeared yet. Above 162.5, the price may test the 165.63 level. 162.5 is now a support level; a break below this level could trigger a reversal pattern.
Resistance levels: 165.63; 168.75.
Support levels: 159.38; 156.25; 153.125; 151.5; 150.
The price has broken above the 0.9277 level and may soon reach the main downtrend line. The rising trendline is also pushing the price upward from below. If it retests the 0.9277 natural level, it would be better to look for a long entry. On the upside, 0.94 can be mentioned as the next resistance level.
Resistance levels: 0.9399; 0.9521; 0.9644.
Support levels: 0.9155; 0.9033; 0.8911.
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