Hungary: Unchanged base rate of 6.25%, but a shift in tone. The path could be paved for an interest rate cut by June
As expected, the MNB’s Monetary Council kept the base rate unchanged at 6.25% at its May meeting. The MNB’s message remained cautious, but it opened the door for interest rate cut if the current favourable trends persist.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Both gold and silver are in a short-term downtrend. It is still worth waiting for buying opportunities in these markets. Oil is becoming increasingly range-bound, which could set the stage for a significant move soon. Natural gas prices have been on an upward trajectory since breaking out of their downtrend. Copper has reached the projected level, from which a downward correction has begun. Wheat and corn are in a correction phase within their upward trends.
The dollar’s overall trend continues to point toward a weakening, but this picture must be reinforced by further depreciation in the coming days; otherwise, a reversal could easily occur. The forint has reached its target price against the euro, so sideways movement is likely in the short term; against the dollar, the downward trend may persist if the dollar begins to weaken again. In the case of the USD/JPY currency pair, the resistance level at 159.38 has been confirmed, which raises the risk of a break in the longer-term uptrend. Meanwhile, signs of a slow, gradual upward turn may be emerging in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
EURUSD
EURUSD
Trading continued along the main uptrend line. The curve is under pressure because it must either break below the natural support level at 1.1719 or move above 1.1781 in line with the trend—possibly as early as today—to maintain the trend. If it breaks below 1.1719, the path toward the 1.1597 level could open up. Above 1.1781, the target price could be around the previous high. The thick green trend line is therefore an important support level and could also serve as a risk management level.
Despite yesterday’s bearish candle, the uptrend is not yet in jeopardy. The 1.3428 level could serve as a dividing line between the long and short sides. The thick green trendline could also serve as a risk management level as it rises. The short-term target remains around 1.3672, but due to the higher low, the February high could also be in play.
The calculated value was reached by testing the 355 level. This makes trading on a further strengthening of the forint riskier relative to the potential return. A minor correction may occur, but the curve is likely to remain below 375. Until a structural shift occurs, there is no point in expecting a trend reversal.
Resistance levels: 375; 382,8; 390,6. Support levels: 355.5; 351.5.
USDHUF
USDHUF
After hitting a new low, it has remained in a downtrend. There is still room for further declines, but of course this would require the dollar to weaken as well. The trend-confirming pattern could even push the price down to around 281. Until a structural shift occurs, going long does not seem like a good idea.
The main trend is upward, as indicated by the thin green trendline. Yen buying above the 159.38 level creates a strong barrier and reinforces the zone above it as resistance. The exchange rate has stuck to the level around 156.25, so the 153.13 level also appears to be a potential retest.
Unless the slight downward trend breaks to a new low, it appears to be shifting toward an upward pattern. However, if it breaks above the 0.9277 level, a move toward the 0.94 area would be expected. The longer-term structure has not yet changed, so the upside potential remains limited; however, a higher low could signal a significant shift later on.
Resistance levels: 0.9399; 0.9521; 0.9644. Support levels: 0.9155; 0.9033; 0.8911.
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