We have updated our Equity Top Pick List to reflect the events of the past quarter. The list includes those stocks, typically US and European ones, that we consider to be proper investment choices from a fundamental point of view. It can provide a starting point for building a sector-diversified equity exposure in portfolios, but can also be used as a watch list. Technical analysis should be used to time / determine the specific investment decision.
Could the momentum return in the semiconductors?
The semiconductor sector has had a challenging quarter, with its performance in recent months lagging behind improvements in underlying fundamentals, even as AI-driven demand remained exceptionally strong. The accelerating adoption of AI by enterprises and the proliferation of AI agents are significantly increasing the demand for computing capacity, which points to a further surge in cloud services and data center investments. Given current supply constraints, record-high backlogs, and higher-than-expected investment needs, we expect further upward revisions to earnings forecasts in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation appears favorable from a historical perspective, which, in our view, could result in a more attractive risk-return profile in the coming months.
The dollar’s overall trend continues to point toward a weakening, but this picture must be reinforced by further depreciation in the coming days; otherwise, a reversal could easily occur. The forint has reached its target price against the euro, so sideways movement is likely in the short term; against the dollar, the downward trend may persist if the dollar begins to weaken again. In the case of the USD/JPY currency pair, the resistance level at 159.38 has been confirmed, which raises the risk of a break in the longer-term uptrend. Meanwhile, signs of a slow, gradual upward turn may be emerging in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
EURUSD
EURUSD
Trading continued along the main uptrend line. The curve is under pressure because it must either break below the natural support level at 1.1719 or move above 1.1781 in line with the trend—possibly as early as today—to maintain the trend. If it breaks below 1.1719, the path toward the 1.1597 level could open up. Above 1.1781, the target price could be around the previous high. The thick green trend line is therefore an important support level and could also serve as a risk management level.
Despite yesterday’s bearish candle, the uptrend is not yet in jeopardy. The 1.3428 level could serve as a dividing line between the long and short sides. The thick green trendline could also serve as a risk management level as it rises. The short-term target remains around 1.3672, but due to the higher low, the February high could also be in play.
The calculated value was reached by testing the 355 level. This makes trading on a further strengthening of the forint riskier relative to the potential return. A minor correction may occur, but the curve is likely to remain below 375. Until a structural shift occurs, there is no point in expecting a trend reversal.
Resistance levels: 375; 382,8; 390,6. Support levels: 355.5; 351.5.
USDHUF
USDHUF
After hitting a new low, it has remained in a downtrend. There is still room for further declines, but of course this would require the dollar to weaken as well. The trend-confirming pattern could even push the price down to around 281. Until a structural shift occurs, going long does not seem like a good idea.
The main trend is upward, as indicated by the thin green trendline. Yen buying above the 159.38 level creates a strong barrier and reinforces the zone above it as resistance. The exchange rate has stuck to the level around 156.25, so the 153.13 level also appears to be a potential retest.
Unless the slight downward trend breaks to a new low, it appears to be shifting toward an upward pattern. However, if it breaks above the 0.9277 level, a move toward the 0.94 area would be expected. The longer-term structure has not yet changed, so the upside potential remains limited; however, a higher low could signal a significant shift later on.
Resistance levels: 0.9399; 0.9521; 0.9644. Support levels: 0.9155; 0.9033; 0.8911.
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