The dollar continued to strengthen following last Friday’s unemployment data, so the trends against its major counterparts remained intact. However, the dollar’s momentum is not significant, so the question of how long this momentum can last will soon arise again. The forint is holding its ground and remains firmly anchored against its major counterparts. Trading against the forint still does not seem like a good idea. For the USD/JPY currency pair, the target could be 162.5 above the 159.38 level. The EUR/CHF exchange rate is also trending upward; due to the breakout from the trend line, there may still be room for further upward movement.
Following the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, the price of copper first fell and then rose to new all-time highs and it is currently still not far from those levels. This is relatively surprising, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz may have numerous negative economic consequences, which, at least in theory, are unfavorable for industrial metals such as copper. In our view, this is due not only to optimism surrounding the data center construction boom but also to disruptions in supply chains caused by the conflict in the Middle East, specifically the shortage of sulfuric acid. In our analysis, we explore the latter topic in detail and examine its potential implications for the copper market.
Gold and silver have remained in their downtrends. However, short-term price targets have been reached, so a pause or minor correction is possible. Since oil gave a long closing signal more than two weeks ago, the downtrend has persisted; until it breaks, a long signal cannot emerge. The rise in natural gas prices has stalled, but there may still be room for an upward move. Copper has broken its uptrend, so a slight decline is possible. Wheat and corn have paused after a trend-like decline due to oversold conditions, but it may still be too early to take a long position.
We’ve hit a new swing low, with the decline reaching the 4,062 level, so the market may find a new bottom in the short term. Oversold conditions could also trigger a slight rebound, but as long as the thick red trendline holds, the chances of a sustained rally are slim. The 4,375 level has turned into resistance.
Resistance levels: 4,688; 4,843; 4,923; 5,000; 5,312; 5,625; 5,938; 6,250.
Support levels: 4,062; 3,750.
The downtrend remains the dominant factor; a break above the red ideal trendline would be needed for a long opportunity to emerge. After falling below 75, the price reached 62.5, which is an important support level. Oversold conditions may trigger a slight correction, but without a break above the red downtrend line, it is unlikely that any significant change will occur.
Resistance levels: 87.5; 93.75; 100; 106.25; 112.5; 121.88; 125; 128.12; 131.25.
Support levels: 62.5; 59.38; 50.
By breaking below 93.25, the curve gave a long closing signal two weeks ago. We saw a minor retest a week ago, but no significant rally. If it breaks below 87.5, it could drop to around 75. However, a break above the red trend line would reverse the downward trend.
Resistance levels: 118.75; 125; 137.5; 150; 175.
Support levels: 87.5; 75; 68.75; 62.5; 59.38; 56.25.; 50.
Since the downtrend was broken, the price has been rising slowly. In recent days, a divergence has also formed, indicating that buying pressure has weakened. However, the thick green trendline remains intact, so if the price retests it, a buying opportunity could arise again. The first major resistance level is around 4.68, so there is room for further upside. Any oversold conditions could now present a long entry point.
Resistance levels: 3.906; 4.688; 6.25; 7.04; 7.81.
Support levels: 2.344; 1.953.
The uptrend has broken down. This could be confirmed by the spike two days ago, which also served as a retest. Currently, the red downtrend line is in effect; as long as the price remains below this level, going long does not seem like a good idea. A break below 6.25 could open the door to further downside. It is advisable to manage the risk of short positions by closing them out above the red downtrend line.
Resistance levels: 6.64; 6.875; ; 7.03; 7.81
Support levels: 5.66; 5.46; 5.27; 4.88; 4.68; 4.49.
There has been no change since the uptrend broke; it still doesn't look good. The curve could even drop down to the previous upward trend breakout level (531). The decline is trending, so it could take several more weeks before we can go long. 625 is already resistance; in the event of a slight pullback, this could be the target price, but it’s not a good idea to trade against the trend.
Resistance levels: 625; 656; 688; 718.
Support levels: 531; 516; 500; 484; 468.
After the sharp drop, the chart has become heavily oversold. This could lead to a pause and some consolidation, but there isn’t much upside potential for now. 437 is already a strong resistance level; that’s about as much of a rally as we can expect. 390 and 375 could also be within reach. It’s still worth waiting before buying.
Resistance levels: 500; 531.2.
Support levels: 406; 390; 375; 343.75.
OTP Global Markets offers a broad range of services in the field of local and international money and capital markets.
Read morePersonal care and expertise with OTP Private Banking, along with the knowledge, security, and innovations of a multinational banking group.
Read more
