As expected, the MNB’s Monetary Council kept the base rate unchanged at 6.25% at its May meeting. The MNB’s message remained cautious, but it opened the door for interest rate cut if the current favourable trends persist.
The dollar’s trend reversed at the beginning of last week and started to strengthen. It has already reached the first target level; the natural level at 1.1597 should act as support, otherwise we may see further dollar strength. The Hungarian forint is undergoing some correction against both the euro and the dollar, but this is still not sufficient for a structural shift in the downside pattern, and reversals in the curve still need time to develop. In the case of the USD/JPY pair, there may be a chance for a reversal below the 159.38 resistance, but this would require a strong downward move within the next few days. In EUR/CHF, a higher low may form, which could indicate a turn to the upside.
Both gold and silver are in a short-term downtrend. It is still worth waiting for buying opportunities in these markets. Oil is becoming increasingly range-bound, which could set the stage for a significant move soon. Natural gas prices have been on an upward trajectory since breaking out of their downtrend. Copper has reached the projected level, from which a downward correction has begun. Wheat and corn are in a correction phase within their upward trends.
The publication of technical analyses will be temporarily suspended next week. We ask for your patience until the next report is published on June 4.
The curve has moved downward from a consolidation phase due to mild selling pressure. In the short term, we are seeing a downward trend. As long as the series of lower swing highs remains intact, an upward reversal is unlikely. As long as the thick red trendline holds, taking a long position does not seem like a good idea.
Resistance levels: 4,843; 4,923; 5,000; 5,312; 5,625; 5,938; 6,250.
Support levels: 4,375; 4,218; 4,062; 3,750.
After two corrective waves, strong selling pressure halted the rally. The zone between 81.25 and 87.5 has been significantly consolidated. Strong support can only be expected around 62.5 and 50.
Resistance levels: 87.5; 93.75; 100; 106.25; 112.5; 121.88; 125; 128.12; 131.25.
Support levels: 62.5; 59.38; 50.
The range is narrowing, and we are getting closer to the point where a new wave could begin. Currently, the range between 93.75 and 106.25 may be decisive; the price would need to break out of this range for us to receive a trading signal. Below 93.75, the bottom of the range could be around 81.25, while a breakout above 106.25 could bring the price to at least 118.75. If it manages to break above the 118.75 level for the fourth time, a massive breakout could follow, because in that case—based on the very long-term picture—the 150 and 175 levels should also be included among the target levels. We are waiting for the candlestick that could mark the first day of a trend-like move.
Resistance levels: 118.75; 125; 137.5; 150; 175.
Support levels: 87.5; 75; 68.75; 62.5; 59.38; 56.25.; 50.
Since breaking the downtrend, it has reached the 3.125 level. This is a key resistance level; a break above it could open up room for further gains. The first major resistance level is around 4.68, so there would be room to move higher. Any oversold conditions could now present opportunities to go long.
Resistance levels: 3.906; 4.688; 6.25; 7.04; 7.81.
Support levels: 2.344; 1.953.
The pullback following the reach of the target price shows downward momentum, although the uptrend remains intact. The correction may find support around the 6.25 level, which must hold for the uptrend to continue. Risk should be managed by exiting the position if the green uptrend line is broken.
Resistance levels: 6.63; 7.03; 7.81
Support levels: 6.25; 5.85; 5.66; 5.46; 5.27; 4.88; 4.68; 4.49.
It is above the uptrend but currently in a correction. A trend-like decline is not yet on the horizon. The 688 level is an important resistance, while 625 serves as support below. The correction could take the price down to this level. The thick green trendline should be used to manage the downside risk.
Resistance levels: 688; 718.
Support levels: 625; 594; 562; 531; 516; 500; 484; 468.
The short-term uptrend is broken; it may even correct slightly. The 453 level is an important support; it must not close below this level under any circumstances, as that could alter the structure. It needs to move above the red downtrend line to set up another long position.
Resistance levels: 500; 531.2.
Support levels: 453; 437; 422; 406; 390; 375; 343.75.
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