Investment Outlook Q3 2026
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Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver have broken their downtrends, triggering upward waves that still hold potential for further gains. After a strong retest, the oil price may settle into a range, but there are still opportunities for further gains. Natural gas prices did not reach a new low, but no pattern indicating a reversal has yet emerged. Copper is maintaining its upward trend; it must rise again within the next few days, or the rally could break down. Wheat and corn are also beginning to turn upward again from key support levels after strong retests.
Strong performance from Expedia
Despite the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices, U.S. consumer spending—and, by extension, travel DEMAND—proved to be sufficiently resilient in the second quarter, from which Expedia also benefited greatly. The company beat analysts’ expectations across all major metrics, with revenue growing by 14%, while also successfully maintaining its strategic goal of cost control, resulting in profit growth of over 20%. Cash generation is very strong, which is being used to repurchase shares, and for now, there's no sign of a slowdown on the demand side, leading the company to raise their full-year expectations for this year. Given the improving fundamentals, we are raising our fair value estimate to $365.
Strong profit growth remains supportive for equities, which could contribute to a broadening of the market rally beyond the technology sector. However, there are several risk factors, like the hawkish Fed, midterm elections, fragile US-Iran deal, large tech IPOs, and AI return fears, that could lead to increased market volatility. Semiconductors’ long-term fundamentals are still strong, but the sector became overcrowded in the short run, and the good news are already priced in, so we removed the sector from our most favored list. We would still keep AI related exposures, like cybersecurity on the software side, but since the next bottleneck could be the power supply to data centers, we remain optimistic about the utilities and renewable energy sectors, as well as healthcare, which stands to benefit from increasingly advanced AI solutions. As we expect a short term pause in the tech rally, even in the face of a significant profit boom, we would maintain neutral exposure regarding the US and EM regions. Given the normalization of energy prices, capital may shift toward relative laggards, like India, LatAm or the CEE region, which have a much more reasonable valuation and growth characteristics.
Macro
With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the worst-case economic scenario may have been averted. Growth forecasts have stabilized in the US around 2% for both 2026 and 2027, and 0.7% and 1% in the eurozone. Inflation has remained persistently high in the US, with the base of acceleration broadening rather than narrowing. In the eurozone, inflation may hover around 3%, but inflationary pressures are not expected to strengthen over the medium term. As a result, the market has already priced in two interest rate hikes by the Fed this year, and even if the central bank ultimately does not go that far, the hawkish tone is likely to persist in the coming months. The ECB has already implemented one rate hike, and may not need to carry the second one out. Hungarian yield curve still prices in four cuts for this year, even as HUF is already testing the 350 level. We believe that at current levels, the risk distribution for the exchange rate is clearly tilted toward depreciation. However, we do not expect any significant HUF weakening.
Equities
Strong profit growth remains supportive for equities, which could contribute to a broadening of the market rally beyond the technology sector. However, there are several risk factors, like the hawkish Fed, midterm elections, fragile US-Iran deal, large tech IPOs, and AI return fears, that could lead to increased market volatility. Semiconductors’ long-term fundamentals are still strong, but the sector became overcrowded in the short run, and the good news are already priced in, so we removed the sector from our most favored list. We would still keep AI related exposures, like cybersecurity on the software side, but since the next bottleneck could be the power supply to data centers, we remain optimistic about the utilities and renewable energy sectors, as well as healthcare, which stands to benefit from increasingly advanced AI solutions. As we expect a short term pause in the tech rally, even in the face of a significant profit boom, we would maintain neutral exposure regarding the US and EM regions. Given the normalization of energy prices, capital may shift toward relative laggards, like India, LatAm or the CEE region, which have a much more reasonable valuation and growth characteristics.
Bonds
The rapid normalization of energy prices is helping to mitigate inflation risks, which is why it is recommended to maintain a neutral position on long-term bonds rather than underweighting them as before. Long bond yields in both the US and the eurozone are currently within what is considered a fair range in the current macro environment.
Commodities
We maintain our neutral view on commodities, as the conflict in the Middle East is still not resolved. As with energy prices, we expect that even if a peace agreement is reached, fertilizer prices may remain relatively higher, which coupled with a stronger El Nino, provide a tailwind for agricultural commodities. We removed gold from our favored list, as the pace of central bank buying is slowing, meanwhile the hawkish Fed rhetoric, and the strengthening dollar are strong headwinds.
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