Investor Sentiment Reflects Cautious Optimism
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7.5% deficit is projected for 2026, and 5.2% for next year
7.5% deficit is projected for 2026, and 5.2% for next year, as the effect of previous tax cuts new spending measures build up, while one-off expenditures fall out in 2027.
Hungarian Equities - Technical Analysis
The BUX index broke its rising market structure last week, suggesting that the prolonged upward wave may have come to an end. MOL has also remained in correction phase since the dividend payment and has now fallen below the 5,000 level, leaving the next significant support considerably lower. Richter found support around 12,180, but no convincing reversal signal has been confirmed yet. Magyar Telekom continues to trade within an increasingly narrow range, with a high-momentum session likely needed to provide short-term direction. Opus remains in a downtrend. Rába is also moving within a broad trading range, although another upward wave could develop later if the necessary technical conditions are met.
In our Institutional Investor Survey, we are providing a unique opportunity for our institutional clients to share and gain insights on market expectations and sentiment. Our focus is on Hungarian assets in the context of regional and global trends. Here, we highlight the most notable insights.
Investor sentiment toward Hungarian equities remains firmly positive, although the latest survey shows a modest reduction in conviction. The share of outright bullish responses fell from 8% to zero, while neutral views increased from 16% to 24%. The results suggest that investors continue to expect the BUX to perform well over the next three months but see less potential for a strong rally after the market’s previous gains.
The outlook for the broader CETOP Index has become more balanced. Slightly bullish responses increased from 40% to 47%, making this the largest category. The CEE region has been able to weather the risks posed by rising energy prices relatively steadily so far this year, supported primarily by domestic consumption and investments aided by EU funds. The CEE equity market remains significantly cheaper than Europe despite a stronger earnings outlook. Corporate profits are expected to grow by 30% this year, roughly twice the European rate, while margins are near record highs. This combination makes CEE one of the most attractive options for investors seeking inexpensive growth without direct exposure to the AI theme.
Investor expectations for the forint have become more cautious since the June survey. The largest share of respondents, 65%, now expect EUR/HUF to trade between 360 and 370 over the next three months, compared with only 24% in the previous survey. Investors continue to expect a broadly stable forint but see less scope for further appreciation from current levels.
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