Investor Sentiment Turning Cautious
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Commodities - Technical Analysis
Signs of a turnaround have emerged for gold and silver, and a strong upward move could trigger the next upward wave. A breakout above the key downtrend lines could also be on the horizon, which would further reinforce the positive turnaround. The price of oil has broken below the 100-day moving average, weakening the bullish outlook, and with the uptrend broken, it has entered a correction phase. Natural gas is showing a correction following a sharp decline, but has not yet managed to break through its downtrend line. Copper continues to trade within a wide range and is approaching the lower end of that range. Following a significant decline, wheat and corn prices have reached key support levels from which an upward correction—or even a new uptrend—is likely to begin.
FX - Technical Analysis
The dollar's momentum has eased, but confirming a trend reversal would require a decisive bearish session against the euro. Against the British pound, however, the exchange rate remains in an uptrend. EUR/HUF continues to trade within a narrowing range, while the dollar remains in an uptrend against the forint. USD/JPY has broken out to the upside from its consolidation pattern, suggesting further upside potential. EUR/CHF previously broke below a key support level that had defined its uptrend, and the pair is now characterized by a downtrend.
Over 30 senior financial professionals, active in CEE markets and managing more than EUR 6.5 billion in assets under direct control, participated in our Institutional Investor Survey. Here, we highlight the most notable insights.
Investor positioning turns meaningfully more cautious across asset classes. Risk appetite has dropped sharply: the share of investors taking above-benchmark risk fell from 33% to 20%, while low-risk allocations doubled to 30%, pointing to a clear shift toward capital preservation amid geopolitical escalation.
CEE equity sentiment cools with BUX and CETOP both face a regional risk repricing. BUX optimism collapsed (bullish: 42% › 23%), while CETOP also re-rated lower as its prior valuation discount normalized back to pre-war levels. Rising geopolitical uncertainty — including declining expectations for a near-term Russia–Ukraine peace — is driving a more measured regional outlook.
FX visibility collapses, while HUF becomes both top potential outperformer and underperformer. EUR/HUF’s return to 390–395 and higher oil-driven vulnerability increased dispersion dramatically. HUF and PLN are now tied as expected outperformers (both 30%), but HUF is simultaneously viewed as the most likely underperformer — signaling exceptionally high uncertainty and volatility expectations.
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