Hungary: MNB kept its policy rate at 5.5% while the government’s new budget stole the show
At its October meeting, the MNB’s Monetary Council kept its base rate unchanged at 5.50%. Although information on the FY27 budget and the mid-term deficit trajectory up to 2030 – key factors in Hungary’s recent euro-accession story – has been gradually released by the government since Monday, those could not be considered by MNB due to the short notice.
Promising technical setup in a german defense stock
Although European markets rebounded last week, they have started this week under renewed, significant selling pressure, which, for the time being, does not favour those looking to enter long positions. Based on momentum, the selling side currently still appears to be stronger. Nevertheless, amongst the shares, we would highlight Hensoldt, which presents a clear technical picture and offers a favourable entry opportunity. The company primarily develops radar systems and other electronic warfare solutions for military and security purposes.
The dollar entered a corrective phase, but the euro also showed weakness during the week, meaning that the EUR/USD exchange rate has so far managed only to consolidate sideways. The dollar has entered a correction phase, but the euro has also shown weakness this week, so the EUR/USD exchange rate has so far only been able to correct within a sideways range. However, the pound has strengthened against the dollar, which means there may still be room for an uptrend within the broad range. The forint remained strong against its major counterparts. Against the euro, it may trade within a narrower range. Against the dollar, however, it reached its first target level, below which it began to consolidate. The USD/JPY exchange rate closed above its downtrend line, but still shows no signs of strength. The EUR/CHF, in a strong retest, broke below the key support level—which is not a good sign, as it should have bounced off that key level.
EURUSD
EURUSD
The exchange rate is in a correction phase, but it is still far from a structural shift. It was extremely oversold below 1.1230, so a correction phase was to be expected. There is still room for the correction to move higher, as the 1.1475 area is considered strong resistance. Based on the current pattern, a correction beyond this level cannot be anticipated. A structural shift is still a long way off; this would require a lower low, as well as a return to the important pivot level at 1.1719. Since the euro has not taken the initiative either, only a mild correction is on the horizon.
The reversal from the 1.3184 level has paved the way for another uptrend. The exchange rate broke through the downtrend at the 1.3306 level, which has now become a support level. Resistance is found at the previous swing highs, which extend to the natural level of 1.3672.
Resistance levels: 1.3672; 1.3916; 1.4160. Support levels: 1.3184; 1.2939; 1.2812.
EURHUF
EURHUF
The price has been trading in a range for weeks; there is a resistance zone above 367, while support can be found below 359 in the short term. It is still far from the descending thick red trendline, so the sideways movement could persist at these levels for quite some time. On the downside, the zone between 351 and 355 would provide very strong support, while on the upside, the 375 level represents strong resistance. Price action is likely to remain within this range in the coming weeks. It’s worth trading at overbought and oversold levels.
The price is consolidating below the key resistance level of 328.1. If the price closes above this level, it could reach 336 and 343.75. It may soon reach the rising trendline from above, which could either push the price higher or break the uptrend, causing it to fall again. A close below 320.4 could be a bad sign.
The strong retest closed above the downtrend line. Nevertheless, it remained below 159.4, which is the level it would need to close above to open up a gap. A break below the thick green trend line would be needed to trigger a short position and the start of a downward wave, but that is not yet the case.
Resistance levels: 162.5; 165.63; 168.75. Support levels: 153.13; 151.56; 150.
EURCHF
EURCHF
It even fell below the 0.9277 level, but given the sharp declines, buying interest emerged below that level as well. However, a buy could be considered only if the downward-sloping red trendline were to be broken.
Resistance levels: 0.9521; 0.9644; 0.9766. Support levels: 0.9155; 0.9033; 0.8911.
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