The semiconductor sector has had a challenging quarter, with its performance in recent months lagging behind improvements in underlying fundamentals, even as AI-driven demand remained exceptionally strong. The accelerating adoption of AI by enterprises and the proliferation of AI agents are significantly increasing the demand for computing capacity, which points to a further surge in cloud services and data center investments. Given current supply constraints, record-high backlogs, and higher-than-expected investment needs, we expect further upward revisions to earnings forecasts in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation appears favorable from a historical perspective, which, in our view, could result in a more attractive risk-return profile in the coming months.
Gold and silver continued their correction, and the movement of precious metals remains characterized by a mild downtrend. Oil’s correction is slowly approaching its first significant support level, so the market’s reaction to this zone will be crucial. Natural gas prices have remained above the upward trend line for now, though the technical picture currently does not suggest a significant shift. Although copper’s upward trend changed a week ago, the price has reached a new high, so a trend reversal or a clear break in the trend has yet to materialize. Wheat and corn prices may continue to move within a correction phase.
The dollar continued its trend-driven strengthening against the euro and the pound, so the formation of new swing lows may further delay the likelihood of a turnaround. At the same time, the forint’s slight strengthening was able to offset the appreciation of its major currency pairs, so exchange rates continue to move sideways. The USD/JPY exchange rate is undergoing a strong correction following the decline of recent weeks. However, the longer-term trend remains downward, so the current movement could even signal a retest of the previous breakout level. The EUR/CHF exchange rate has also begun to correct after rising in recent weeks, but the main uptrend remains intact for now. We could only speak of a significant structural shift if the exchange rate were to break below its uptrend line.
The exchange rate is in a downward trend, and even the 1.1475 level only halted the decline for three days. Since it has hit a new swing low, the possibility of a reversal is being pushed back, and a retest of 1.1352 could even be on the table. A break above the red trend line could pave the way for an uptrend, but that could still take several weeks.
Resistance levels: 1.1719; 1.1841; 1.1962; 1.2085; 1.2207.
Support levels: 1,1352; 1.1230.
This pair also continued its downward trend due to the strengthening dollar. Closing below 1.3477 opened the way toward 1.3307 and 1.3184. Until it breaks above the thick red trend line, a long opportunity is unlikely to arise.
Resistance levels: 1.3672; 1.3916; 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3307; 1.3184; 1.2939; 1.2812.
Even after a minor decline, there doesn't appear to be much room for significant movement. On the downside, the 351–355 range could serve as very strong support, while on the upside, the 375 level is strong resistance. Movement within this range is likely in the coming weeks.
Resistance levels: 375; 382,8; 390,6.
Support levels: 359.4; 355.5; 351.56; 343.75.
The strength of the dollar has led to a slight upward trend, but the forint is also strong, so we didn’t see any significant movement last week. On the downside, 312.5 is an important key support level, while on the upside, the market is theoretically open. The rising green trendline drawn from the low could provide support from below. As long as the pair remains above this trendline, it’s worth favoring long positions. 320.4 is a minor resistance level; above that, the 328.1 area could also be within reach.
Resistance levels: 320.4; 328.1; 335.9; 343.75; 351.5; 359.38.
Support levels: 312.5; 304.7, 296; 289.2; 281.25.
After breaking the long-term uptrend, the price reversed from the natural support level of 153.13. A correction of the decline is currently underway, and the target for this correction may be the downward-sloping red trendline around the 159.38 level. This situation may still be favorable for opening short positions.
Resistance levels: 162.5; 165.63; 168.75.
Support levels: 153.125; 151.5; 150.
We saw a structural shift a few weeks ago, which could have had the 0.9521 level as its target. However, the reversal over the past three days may put the uptrend to the test once again. The structure is still bullish, so 0.9277 should not be breached for this to hold. 0.9521 remains an important resistance level, and it could still be reached if the uptrend holds.
Resistance levels: 0.9521; 0.9644; 0.9766.
Support levels: 0.9277; 0.9155; 0.9033; 0.8911.
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