Romania has experienced five turbulent months on the domestic political front. Nevertheless, after several prime ministerial candidates failed to secure parliamentary support, a new government was finally formed in late October. The Romanian equity market, which had performed strongly during the first half of the year, lost momentum towards the end of August and entered a downward correction in September. It then rebounded in October, partly reflecting the reduced risks of a snap election and a sovereign rating downgrade to below investment grade. While domestic political tensions have subsided, the BET index has yet to recover to the vicinity of its August peak. At the same time, Romanian equities no longer appear particularly inexpensive from a valuation perspective.
Signs of a turnaround have emerged for gold and silver, and a strong upward move could trigger the next upward wave. A breakout above the key downtrend lines could also be on the horizon, which would further reinforce the positive turnaround. The price of oil has broken below the 100-day moving average, weakening the bullish outlook, and with the uptrend broken, it has entered a correction phase. Natural gas is showing a correction following a sharp decline, but has not yet managed to break through its downtrend line. Copper continues to trade within a wide range and is approaching the lower end of that range. Following a significant decline, wheat and corn prices have reached key support levels from which an upward correction—or even a new uptrend—is likely to begin.
EURUSD has established a higher low and is resuming its upward momentum, potentially creating additional upside above the 1.1657 level. GBPUSD is also trending higher, with 1.3184 serving as a key risk management threshold and significant room for further appreciation. EURHUF has entered a zone where more pronounced corrections may occur. Meanwhile, the forint remains confined to a narrow range against the U.S. dollar, though downside risks persist. USDJPY exhibited slight overbought conditions above 156.25 and has begun a corrective move; however, the 153.13 level remains a critical support, as a break below it would jeopardize the prevailing bullish trend. EURCHF has reached a new swing high. If the pair consolidates above 0.9277, it may present opportunities to seek long positions.
A break above the short-term downtrend line following a higher swing low could open the door for further upside. However, this would require the price to close above 1.1657. If successful, the 1.1841 level could come into play.
Resistance levels: 1.1719; 1.1841; 1.1962; 1.2085.
Support levels: 1.1475; 1.3520; 1.1230.
The exchange rate remains at a critical level, as it managed to rise above 1.3184 and has not fallen back below this level so far. If the exchange rate closes below 1.3184, the possibility of an increase would disappear. However, if it manages to bounce up from here in the coming days, a stronger upward wave could start. A successful bounce could open the way to reaching the 1.3428 level.
Resistance levels: 1.3428; 1.3672; 1.3916; 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.2939; 1.2812; 1.2695.
The exchange rate is approaching a strong support level, which creates an extremely sensitive situation. Unfavorable news could easily trigger significant profit-taking among forint investors. We have reached the zone (375) from which there appears to be no significant downside potential. Based on the risk/reward ratio, opening new long positions in the forint is not justified at this time. As long as the ideal red downward trend line is not broken, the goal of a correction wave can only be to test this trend line. Before that, however, the 386.7 level represents minor resistance, the break of which would open up the possibility of reaching the 390 level. These levels are relevant in the short term.
Resistance levels: 406.25; 410.1; 414.06.
Support levels: 378.9; 375.
The exchange rate has reached its long-term upward trend. Recently, a sideways movement has been observed, with a lower limit of 328.1 and an upper limit of approximately 340. It is expected to remain within a narrow range, but the risks continue to point downward. A weakening of the dollar could cause a further decline.
Resistance levels: 343.75; 351.5; 359.38.
Support levels: 328.1; 320.4; 312.5.
Currently, a minor correction phase can be observed, which has not caused any significant changes so far. The exchange rate is returning from a slightly overbought state, so the decline can be considered a correction for the time being. It is important that the exchange rate remains above 153.13, because only in this case is it worth looking for further long entry opportunities. If this level is breached, it would pose a serious problem and could even lead to a retest of the 150 level.
Resistance levels: 156.25; 159.38.
Support levels: 153.13; 150; 146.25; 143.75; 140.6; 137.5.
The new swing high suggests that buying opportunities may be found in the next wave of fall. If the next wave of decline does not break the 0.9277 level, it could set the stage for a good long position. Of course, it does not show great potential, with the 0.94 level likely to be the target.
Resistance levels: 0.9399; 0.9521; 0.9644.
Support levels: 0.9277; 0.9160.
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