Our Fixed Income Top Picks
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Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver have broken their downtrends, triggering upward waves that still hold potential for further gains. After a strong retest, the oil price may settle into a range, but there are still opportunities for further gains. Natural gas prices did not reach a new low, but no pattern indicating a reversal has yet emerged. Copper is maintaining its upward trend; it must rise again within the next few days, or the rally could break down. Wheat and corn are also beginning to turn upward again from key support levels after strong retests.
Strong performance from Expedia
Despite the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices, U.S. consumer spending—and, by extension, travel DEMAND—proved to be sufficiently resilient in the second quarter, from which Expedia also benefited greatly. The company beat analysts’ expectations across all major metrics, with revenue growing by 14%, while also successfully maintaining its strategic goal of cost control, resulting in profit growth of over 20%. Cash generation is very strong, which is being used to repurchase shares, and for now, there's no sign of a slowdown on the demand side, leading the company to raise their full-year expectations for this year. Given the improving fundamentals, we are raising our fair value estimate to $365.
Developments over the past two weeks have demonstrated that geopolitical and inflation risks have not disappeared. Nevertheless, yields in both the euro area and the United States are currently within what we consider to be reasonable ranges. Our latest selection features bonds that may offer attractive risk-adjusted return potential as part of a suitably diversified portfolio.
Until the first week of July, oil prices had normalised significantly, materially easing inflationary pressures and potentially increasing the appeal of longer-duration bonds. Yields in both the United States and the euro area are currently within what we consider to be reasonable ranges. However, recent developments in the Middle East suggest that the US–Iran ceasefire remains rather fragile, potentially leading to renewed volatility in both oil prices and bond yields. Nevertheless, corporate bond yields have returned to near-historical lows.
Euro-Denominated Corporate Bonds
The conflict involving Iran caused only a temporary spike in corporate bond yields. By the summer, yields had returned to near-historical lows as investor risk appetite recovered. Developments over the past two weeks have yet to result in any material change in this picture. Euro-denominated high-yield (HY) bonds continue to offer only a minimal yield premium over investment-grade securities. The additional credit risk should therefore be carefully assessed when selecting individual bonds.
Dollar-Denominated Corporate Bonds
Our selection of US dollar-denominated bonds includes several regional corporate issuers. Two OTP bonds are featured: subordinated instruments maturing in 2033 and 2035. The list also includes bonds issued by two Turkish companies, as well as a Telekom Srbija bond. Among US issuers, our current selection features one bond each from Amazon and United Airlines.
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