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Commodities - Technical Analysis
Signs of a turnaround have emerged for gold and silver, and a strong upward move could trigger the next upward wave. A breakout above the key downtrend lines could also be on the horizon, which would further reinforce the positive turnaround. The price of oil has broken below the 100-day moving average, weakening the bullish outlook, and with the uptrend broken, it has entered a correction phase. Natural gas is showing a correction following a sharp decline, but has not yet managed to break through its downtrend line. Copper continues to trade within a wide range and is approaching the lower end of that range. Following a significant decline, wheat and corn prices have reached key support levels from which an upward correction—or even a new uptrend—is likely to begin.
FX - Technical Analysis
The dollar's momentum has eased, but confirming a trend reversal would require a decisive bearish session against the euro. Against the British pound, however, the exchange rate remains in an uptrend. EUR/HUF continues to trade within a narrowing range, while the dollar remains in an uptrend against the forint. USD/JPY has broken out to the upside from its consolidation pattern, suggesting further upside potential. EUR/CHF previously broke below a key support level that had defined its uptrend, and the pair is now characterized by a downtrend.
U.S. and European corporate bond spreads remain at historically low levels, leaving limited room for yield premiums, particularly in the high-yield segment. Regional sovereign and corporate bonds denominated in euros and U.S. dollars still offer attractive alternatives with moderate risk profiles. In this report, we have selected instruments linked to fundamentally solid issuers that provide a balanced risk-return profile in the current market environment.
Diversification of the bond portfolio by currency should continue to be implemented through euro- and dollar-denominated regional government bonds (Hungarian, Romanian, Albanian), as well as high-quality corporate bonds issued in euros and dollars.
Euro-Denominated Corporate Bonds
Corporate bond yields remain at low levels, as risk appetite in the capital markets is currently high, supported by strong profit outlooks and a favorable macroeconomic environment. January started with an exceptionally strong wave of corporate bond issuance. In such an environment, it is challenging to find corporate bonds that still offer meaningful yields at acceptable risk levels. For this reason, we have kept well-known names on our list, as finding better alternatives is difficult.
Dollar-Denominated Corporate Bonds
Companies in the region typically issue bonds in euros, with a much narrower list available in dollars. The list includes two OTP-related bonds—subordinated instruments maturing in 2033 and 2035. Both have early call options, which can significantly limit the yield investors ultimately realize. Another Hungarian-linked bond on the list is MVM’s note maturing in June 2028.
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