Our Fixed Income Favourites
Related content
After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
In order to achieve diversification in terms of currency, government bonds denominated in euros and dollars in the region — particularly Hungarian and Romanian bonds — offer attractive returns with acceptable — albeit increasing — risks.
Euro or dollar bonds issued by companies in the region (including Turkish issuances more broadly) still offer a yield premium over similar-rated bonds issued by companies in Europe or the US, while the risk profile of the former is similar or better.
Euro-Denominated Corporate Bonds
Yields on corporate bonds issued in euros have fallen steadily over the past three months as risk appetite has improved. This makes it particularly difficult to find corporate bonds that still offer meaningful yields at acceptable risk levels.
Dollar-Denominated Corporate Bonds
Companies in the region typically issue bonds in euros, with a much narrower list available in dollars. For this reason, the list includes two MREL bonds issued in recent years that are linked to OTP, of which the 2027 senior preferred is ranked higher than the longer-maturity 2033 subordinated paper. In both cases, there is the possibility to call the bonds earlier, in which case the resulting yield potential is much more limited.
Get more out of your investments!
Global Markets Services
OTP Global Markets offers a broad range of services in the field of local and international money and capital markets.
Read morePrivate Banking Services
Personal care and expertise with OTP Private Banking, along with the knowledge, security, and innovations of a multinational banking group.
Read more