Our Equity Top Pick List
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After a hot fall, a spring tornado could wreak havoc in France
Barely half a year after this year’s French budget was passed, the wrangling over the 2027 budget is about to begin, but that’s not all, because France will also hold a presidential election next spring. During the first public presidential debate, some of the radical candidates put forward ideas that were, at times, unconventional. Although the presidential election in late April still seems far off, based on the latest polls, if no candidate secures enough votes and a runoff is held, it cannot be ruled out that two radical presidential candidates will face off against each other. Market participants may have begun to price in this growing uncertainty, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has started to widen again in recent weeks. The period ahead promises to be full of twists and turns, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on developments in French domestic politics.
Commodities - Technical Analysis
Gold and silver prices have retested their uptrend lines, so the long-term trend may continue. Oil prices have broken out of a contracting pattern, which may signal the start of another upward wave. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, signaling a buy. In the case of copper, the main uptrend remains in effect, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in the trend’s structure. Following significant gains, wheat and corn have become heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
Our latest Investment Strategy recommends an overall neutral exposure to the equity asset class over the next 6-12 months. We believe this should be taken into account when making investment decisions in individual equities (the timing of investments or the size of positions).
The list includes those stocks, typically US and European ones, that we consider to be proper investment choices from a fundamental point of view. At the sector level, we examine the relative position of each stock on the basis of indicators (like valuation, profit growth prospects, indebtedness, quality), and then, after an individual analysis of the best performers, we select the companies we consider most attractive from a risk/return perspective.
Given the fundamental selection process, the stocks on the list should be treated as longer-term investment opportunities, but are reviewed on a quarterly basis to check whether the stock is on track with our original expectations or whether there is a sector peer with a better risk/return profile. The list can provide a starting point for building a sector-diversified equity exposure in portfolios, but can also be used as a watch list. In the latter case, the technical analysis methodology should be used to time/determine the specific investment decision. This is the purpose of our Trading Ideas report, which will also provide a specific trading strategy for the stocks on the list, if indicated.
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