The semiconductor sector has had a challenging quarter, with its performance in recent months lagging behind improvements in underlying fundamentals, even as AI-driven demand remained exceptionally strong. The accelerating adoption of AI by enterprises and the proliferation of AI agents are significantly increasing the demand for computing capacity, which points to a further surge in cloud services and data center investments. Given current supply constraints, record-high backlogs, and higher-than-expected investment needs, we expect further upward revisions to earnings forecasts in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation appears favorable from a historical perspective, which, in our view, could result in a more attractive risk-return profile in the coming months.
Despite the energy shocks, economies stayed resilient, stable growth is expected in the developed world. Corporates are experiencing significant - partly AI driven - profit gwoth, which is a strong tailwind for stock markets. However, given the rising risks, it's worth staying selective.
Gold and silver continued their correction, and the movement of precious metals remains characterized by a mild downtrend. Oil’s correction is slowly approaching its first significant support level, so the market’s reaction to this zone will be crucial. Natural gas prices have remained above the upward trend line for now, though the technical picture currently does not suggest a significant shift. Although copper’s upward trend changed a week ago, the price has reached a new high, so a trend reversal or a clear break in the trend has yet to materialize. Wheat and corn prices may continue to move within a correction phase.
The correction continued this week. If the 4,218 level is broken to the downside, the lows set a few weeks ago could once again come into focus. As long as the price remains below the red trendline, it’s best to wait for a reversal. The coming period will determine whether we see a higher low or if the curve drops below 4,000.
Resistance levels: 4,688; 4,843; 4,923; 5,000.
Support levels: 4,218; 3,906; 3,750.
It is in a correction phase, but the curve has not yet broken below the key support level of 62.5. If it does not fall any further, there remains a chance that it will soon reach a new monthly high. The first resistance level is expected around 75, but the anticipated correction for the entire downward wave lies around 87.5. A close below 62.5 would signal weakness, and in that case, the lows hit a few weeks ago could be retested.
Resistance levels: 75; 81.25; 87.5; 93.75; 100; 106.25.
Support levels: 62.5; 56.25; 53.13; 50.
The curve turned downward last week, triggering a correction. The previous trend-break level around 87.5 is now a strong support level; this could be a good entry point for a long position. The extent of the correction will truly indicate whether further gains can be expected. As long as the red downtrend line remains intact, taking a long position does not seem like a good idea.
Resistance levels: 106,25; 112,5; 118.75; 125.
Support levels: 87,5; 81.25; 75.
The downward trend has been broken to the upside, so the possibility of further gains remains. 3.125 could act as resistance, while 2.714 could provide support on the downside.
Resistance levels: 3.125; 3.906; 4.688; 6.25; 7.04; 7.81.
Support levels: 2.714; 2.344; 1.953.
The sharp decline seen two weeks ago would have triggered a sell signal had the price not reached a new high this week; thus, the break in the uptrend is delayed. On the upside, the level is 7.04, while on the downside, stronger support may lie between 5.85 and 6.04, which could already be a buy zone.
Resistance levels: 7.03; 7.81
Support levels: 6.04; 5.85; 5.66; 5.46; 5.27.
The correction continues from a state of extreme overbought conditions. The 688 level could serve as support; if the price can hold above it, the uptrend will remain intact and another long opportunity may open up. Above that, the 781 and 812 levels are considered very strong resistance. The extent and nature of the retest may indicate whether we’ll see another favorable long entry opportunity.
Resistance levels: 781; 813.
Support levels: 688; 656; 625; 562; 531; 516; 500.
A correction has begun following extreme overbought conditions. The correction could find very strong support at the 484 level, but it would need to fall further to reach that point. The less it falls and the gentler the decline, the more likely it is that another opportunity to go long will arise.
Resistance levels: 531.2; 563.
Support levels: 484; 468; 437; 406.
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