Alibaba: trading idea closing
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Our Equity Top Pick List
We have updated our Equity Top Pick List to reflect the events of the past quarter. The list includes those stocks, typically US and European ones, that we consider to be proper investment choices from a fundamental point of view. It can provide a starting point for building a sector-diversified equity exposure in portfolios, but can also be used as a watch list. Technical analysis should be used to time / determine the specific investment decision.
Could the momentum return in the semiconductors?
The semiconductor sector has had a challenging quarter, with its performance in recent months lagging behind improvements in underlying fundamentals, even as AI-driven demand remained exceptionally strong. The accelerating adoption of AI by enterprises and the proliferation of AI agents are significantly increasing the demand for computing capacity, which points to a further surge in cloud services and data center investments. Given current supply constraints, record-high backlogs, and higher-than-expected investment needs, we expect further upward revisions to earnings forecasts in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation appears favorable from a historical perspective, which, in our view, could result in a more attractive risk-return profile in the coming months.
Alibaba's share price failed to maintain its breakout from weeks ago, reaching the stop level of our trading idea yesterday after the reversal. We therefore consider the position closed, which we attribute primarily to the underperformance of the technology sector rather than any change in the company's specific fundamentals. Therefore, although we are exiting our trading position, we are maintaining the stock on our equity top pick list due to its favorable long-term fundamentals.
The development of AI solutions (such as Anthropic's developments in recent times) has put software stocks under serious selling pressure, as in many cases artificial intelligence may call into question the business model of these companies, which could present them with structural challenges. The wave of selling had a negative impact on the entire technology sector, and in recent days, investors have responded to the quarterly flash reports of several large technology companies by reducing their positions, triggered either by higher-than-expected capex plans or growth figures that fell just short of expectations. The underlying reason may be that expectations were simply too high, while positioning became stretched, leading to corrections.
Relative price movements of Alibaba and its peers
We basically attribute the downward trend in the shares of Alibaba and several other Chinese competitors in recent days to this unfavorable industry environment, which ultimately caused our long trading position to reach its previously set stop-loss level. It is worth cutting losses here and stepping back until the general sector-wide selling pressure subsides.
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