OTP Morning Brief: The Fed did not cause surprise
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OTP Morning Brief: Crude oil prices plunged sharply as the Middle East conflict eased
The first trading day of the week brought modest gains to the major European stock markets, as sectors benefiting from the easing of the Middle East conflict offset declines in the technology and energy sectors. Stock markets across the CEE region also moved higher, with the BUX gaining 0.7%. Wall Street indices closed mixed with minor moves, as investors turned their attention to the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision later this week and earnings reports from major technology companies. WTI crude futures fell by more than 7%, while Brent crude declined by over 8%. Developed-market bond yields declined as easing concerns over CPI, driven by lower oil prices, boosted demand for fixed-income assets. Domestic long-term bond yields also moved markedly lower. The EURHUF exchange rate is trading around the 360 level. Today marks the start of the Fed's two-day rate-setting meeting, while the earnings season continues with reports from several major companies.
OTP Morning Brief: Airstrikes eased in the Middle East
European indices advanced on Friday, allowing them to end the week in positive territory once again. The July PMI data painted a positive picture of the eurozone outlook, although Trump imposed new tariffs, including measures affecting Europe. The BUX declined on Friday, but still ended the week in positive territory. According to the HCSO, employment declined while unemployment increased. Airstrikes between Iran and neighboring countries eased over the weekend. This pushed oil prices back below $100 per barrel. The S&P declined on Friday and posted a loss for the week as a whole. The composite PMI also increased in the US. Developed market government bond yields retreated from their local highs. Hungarian bond yields increased, while the forint strengthened slightly. Q2 GDP data will be released this week for Hungary, the eurozone, and the US. In addition, investors will be watching eurozone and US CPI data, as well as the Fed's interest rate decision.
The Fed did not cause surprise; Meta’s and Tesla’s earnings reports were well received, but that of Microsoft disappointed. Western Europe’s stock markets fell, led by luxury companies, while CEE markets closed at new highs. In Hungary, Richter and OTP headed the rally, the latter ended at a new high. The Fed’s decision did not move US markets, investors waited for big tech companies' earnings reports to be published. The EUR/USD turned back from its 1.2 peak, while the EUR/HUF remained around 380. Bond yield moved mixed, Hungary’s long-term yields sank. Precious metal prices hit new highs again. Today, the USA releases factory orders and weekly unemployment statistics, and Hungary publishes industrial producer prices and detailed foreign trade statistics. As the earnings season continues, Apple, Mastercard, and SAP release their reports today.
Western European stocks fell, led by luxury companies, while CEE indices closed at new highs. MTelekom and OTP fuelled the BUX’s rally, the banking share closed at new high.
Western Europe’s indices subsided on Wednesday as luxury stocks weakened and investors remained cautious ahead tech giants’ of upcoming earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The STOXX 600 closed 0.8% lower, with luxury stocks leading the decline (-3.8%), marking their fourth consecutive day of losses. Shares of LVMH, the owner of Louis Vuitton and Tiffany, plunged 7.9% after CEO Bernard Arnault warned to be cautious in the year ahead.
Chipmaker ASML eased concerns about a near-term slowdown in demand by reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter orders. Yet the general caution surrounding the sector sent the stock down 1.9%, despite hitting a record high in early trading.
Deutsche Bank shares slid 1.9% after federal police raided its Frankfurt and Berlin offices as part of a money-laundering investigation, prosecutors in Frankfurt said.
On the macroeconomic front, the German government cut its growth forecasts for this year (from 1.3% to 1%) and next year (from 1.4% to 1.3%), citing uncertainties surrounding global trade and the slower impact of government measures.
The unsupportive sentiment in Western Europe could not drag down CEE stock markets: Poland’s WIG20, Czechia’s PX50, and Hungary’s BUX all closed at new highs. The engines of the BUX’s growth were Richter (+1.6%), OTP (+1.1%) and MTelekom (+1.0%). The latter two blue chips also ended trading at record highs, and OTP closed above the 40,000-forint mark for the first time. Mol slipped by 1.5% from Tuesday's peak.
The Fed’s decision did not move US markets, investors waited for tech giants' earnings figures
America’s markets barely moved on Wednesday: the S&P and Dow stagnated, the NASDAQ inched up. In the earlier part of the trading session the S&P was above 7,000 points for the first time, but it could not hold out there. The indices did not move much after the FOMC's decision, where the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold. In the subsequent statement, the Fed indicated that the labour market "shows signs of stabilization" and removed the wording from its previous statement that the downside risks to jobs had increased. At the same time, it considered inflation to be elevated, but Chairman Powell emphasized that these risks have also decreased, and services inflation is slowing, while goods inflation reflects the impact of a one-off increase in tariffs. Investors waited for reports from "Magnificent Seven" companies (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla) to be released after market close.
Of the eleven main sectors of the S&P 500, real estate, consumer staples, and healthcare suffered the biggest falls. The energy sector (+0.7%) posted the largest gains, along with technology (+0.6%), mainly thanks to chipmakers. AI chipmaker Nvidia (1.6%) gave the biggest impetus, followed by Micron (+6%) and Intel (+11%). Previously, SK Hynix, a key Nvidia supplier, reported a record quarterly profit, and ASML also posted its highest-ever fourth-quarter order book, sparking a rally in tech stocks from Europe to Asia. Texas Instruments shares rose 9.9%; late Tuesday, the analogue chipmaker forecast first-quarter revenue and profit that beat Wall Street expectations. Seagate Technology shares closed more than 19% higher after the company also forecast higher-than-expected revenue and profit for the third quarter, while rival Western Digital rallied 10.7%.
Meta and Tesla shares initially rose nearly 4% and 3%, respectively, in late-night trading as their flash reports were released after market close. In contrast, Microsoft shares fell more than 3% after the report was released, while IBM shares jumped 7% on the back of the latest results.
Oil prices rose around 1% on Wednesday due to growing concerns about Iran, while the weak US dollar provided further support.
The EUR/USD turned back from the 1.2 peak; the EUR/HUF remained near 380; Hungarian bond yields sank, precious metals at new peak
The EUR/USD fell to 1.19 from the four-year high hit earlier this week after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen ruled out any intervention in the USD/JPY exchange rate. Having cut interest rates in the previous three meetings, the Fed did not change the target range of the key interest rate, as expected. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further cuts were unlikely for some time. ECB's policymaker Martin Kocher warned that further strengthening of the euro could lead to interest rate cuts. Bond yields barely changed on Wednesday; the US 10Y yield remained near 4.25% and the German is still in the vicinity of 2.85%.
Meanwhile, gold was heading for the USD 5,300 mark, and briefly surpassed it. Gold and silver ended Wednesday’s trading at new highs.
The strengthening of the forint has stopped at the 380 level against the euro. In the bond market, reference yields on 10Y maturities and beyond sank by 4-5 basis points, the ten-year bond yield is at 6.5%. In Wednesday’s auction, the ÁKK offered HUF 30 billion in six-month discount T-Bills, bids amounted to barely half of that amount, and the agency accepted HUF 10 billion worth of them. However, there was strong interest at the switch auctions, where HUF 80 billion worth of 2032 and 2034 tenors changed hands.
Today’s highlights
Asia’s indices remained largely unchanged today (Nikkei 0.1%; SSEC -0.1%), as mixed flash reports from the US technology sector warranted caution. Index futures pointed to tiny moves in the USA and suggested small gains in Europe this morning.
Gold and silver rose to all-time highs as investors continue to flee to physical assets. Oil prices also reached a four-month high after US President Donald Trump warned Iran that it could expect attacks if it did not reach an agreement on nuclear weapons.
Today, domestic producer price statistics and detailed foreign trade data for December will be released. In the US, weekly unemployment figures and manufacturing order statistics will be released.
Today, the USA releases factory orders and weekly unemployment statistics, and Hungary publishes production price index and detailed foreign trade statistics.
The earnings season continues with reports from Apple, Mastercard, and SAP, among others.
In Hungary, the ÁKK is offering 12M discount Treasury Bills, 6Y green bonds, and 10Y floating-rate bonds worth HUF 30, 20, and 25 billion, respectively.
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