OTP Morning Brief: Stock markets rose on signs of easing tensions with Iran
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OTP Morning Brief: Long-term yields continue to shatter records, energy prices surge
Neither the conflict involving Iran nor US-China relations saw a breakthrough on Thursday, while energy prices resumed their upward trajectory, with both European natural gas and oil prices rising by nearly 5%. Meanwhile, developed market bond yields swiftly surpassed the record levels reached the day before: US 10-year Treasury yields climbed as high as 5.21% intraday, while long-term sovereign bond yields across virtually all eurozone countries also advanced to multi-year highs.
OTP Morning Brief: Rate hike expectations strengthened, while developed bond markets saw yields reach multi-decade highs
Based on remarks made at the UN General Assembly, there appears to be little sign of a convergence in positions between the US and Iran. Brent crude futures climbed back above USD 100 per barrel. Major European and US equity indices closed in negative territory. The technology sector struggled in the US. Growth-supportive PMI readings were released in both Europe and the US, pointing to a resilient economic outlook. A hawkish message came from a Federal Reserve policymaker. Developed market long-term bond yields moved higher, while the dollar strengthened against the euro. The BUX advanced, while the forint weakened against major currencies. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year high. The MNB will publish its latest Inflation Report today.
Europe’s stock indices rose yesterday. The UK's Februaryinflation matched expectations. The Ifo sentiment index fell in March as expectations worsened. US indices rose as chances of a negotiated settlement with Iran seem to increase. Developed markets’ bond yields fell; the USD and the HUF appreciated. Today the US releases weekly jobless claims figures, and Hungary’s MNB publishes its latest Inflation Report.
Europe’s stocks rose on Wednesday; UK February inflation matched expectations; Ifo sentiment index fell in March as expectations worsen
The stock markets in Europe climbed higher on Wednesday as investors priced in the possibility of an imminent de-escalation in the Middle East, although concerns about the economic impact of the war continued to dampen risk-taking. The STOXX 600 increased by 1.4%, in its third straight day of gains. Brent crude dropped after US President Donald Trump said there was progress in talks with Iran, even though Tehran denied direct negotiations and left closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes. Macroeconomic uncertainty and Europe's dependence on oil imports continue to weigh on European stocks.
In the United Kingdom, annual inflation was 3% in February, matching the January figure and market expectations. The biggest upward impact came from a 0.9% month/month increase in clothing prices, while inflation slowed in several sectors, including transport (2.4% vs. 2.7% in January), food (3.3% vs. 3.6%) and services (4.3% vs. 4.4%). CPI rose by 0.4% month/month, in line with market expectations, while annual core inflation accelerated to 3.2% vs. 3.1%. However, the February data may be less market-moving this time, as it does not yet include the impact of the March oil price shock. In Germany, the Ifo business sentiment index dropped to 86.4 points in March, weaker than the previous month’s 88.4, but slightly above the expected 86.1 points. The decline was driven by a sharp deterioration in expectations, exacerbated by uncertainty over the Iran war, while the current situation component remained at 86.7. The decline was also broad-based across sectors, but the sentiment particularly weak in manufacturing, services, trade, and construction.
The CEE region’s stock indices rose yesterday. The picture was mixed for Hungary’s blue chips: OTP and Richter closed higher, while MTelekom ended flat, and MOL's share price slipped.
US indices rose as prospects for a negotiated settlement to the Iran conflict appear to be improving
America’s stock indices closed higher yesterday as investors continued to watch developments in the Middle East. Adding to the gloom was Iran’s foreign minister’s statement that Tehran was unwilling to negotiate with Washington, even though the leadership was considering a US plan to end the war. Iran’s state media reported that the country would reject the US ceasefire offer and propose its own five-point counter-proposal, including control over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, oil prices eased (WTI: -2.2% and Brent -2.17%), as the market began to price in the possibility of a near-term easing of the conflict. The key indices returned to positive territory after last week’s sharp decline, but analysts warned that the market may be overly optimistic about a quick resolution, while inflationary risks from an energy price shock and the possibility of a prolonged conflict persist.
Developed markets’ bond yields fell; the USD and the HUF strengthened
As confidence in a peace deal in Iran deal grew, fears surrounding energy prices, inflation, and interest rate hikes, as well as risk aversion all abated, helping developed economies’ bond yields retreat from previous peaks. The 10Y US bond yield sank by three basis points, to 4.35%, the German one declined comparably, to less than 3%, and the riskier French and Italian ones slipped by almost 10 basis points. At the same time, the dollar strengthened by almost 0.5% against the euro, pushing the EUR/USD to 1.155, after Germany’s IFO index fell sharply, while US export and import prices unexpectedly jumped markedly.
The sentiment was also benign in Hungary. The forint’s 0.7% appreciation drove the EUR/HUF to 387, and Hungary’s benchmark government bond yields eased by roughly ten basis points; the 10Y one dropped below 7.4%. At the auction of 6M discount T-Bills, barely HUF 5 billion worth of Treasury bills – a quarter of the announced amount – were allotted due to anaemic demand; the average yield was set at 6.38%. But there was strong interest at the switch auction of 2037/A and 2038/A bonds, where the amounts on offer (HUF 42 billion and HUF 22 billion respectively) were allotted, with the average yield slightly above 7.4%.
Today’s highlights
Asia’s indices moved mixed today, as it seemed that the end of the Iranian conflict might be even further away than had been hoped, as the leaders of the attacked country initially rejected America’s demands and the USA continued bombing Iran.
The USA releases the weekly jobless claims data, and Hungary’s MNB publishes its latest Inflation Report today.
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