OTP Morning Brief: Long-term yields continue to shatter records, energy prices surge
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OTP Morning Brief: Rate hike expectations strengthened, while developed bond markets saw yields reach multi-decade highs
Based on remarks made at the UN General Assembly, there appears to be little sign of a convergence in positions between the US and Iran. Brent crude futures climbed back above USD 100 per barrel. Major European and US equity indices closed in negative territory. The technology sector struggled in the US. Growth-supportive PMI readings were released in both Europe and the US, pointing to a resilient economic outlook. A hawkish message came from a Federal Reserve policymaker. Developed market long-term bond yields moved higher, while the dollar strengthened against the euro. The BUX advanced, while the forint weakened against major currencies. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year high. The MNB will publish its latest Inflation Report today.
OTP Morning Brief: MNB keeps base rate unchanged at 5.5%, lowers inflation target from 2028 onwards
Tuesday's trading session brought only modest moves across Western European markets. The MNB kept its base rate unchanged at 5.5%, in line with market expectations. The inflation target will be lowered to 2.5% from January 2028. Wall Street indices closed mixed, despite gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks. The decline in crude oil prices extended for a fifth consecutive day. Developed market bond yields were broadly unchanged and showed little meaningful movement. The Hungarian 10-year government bond yield eased to 5.64%. Investors will be closely watching the September PMI releases from Europe and the US today. Additionally, Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US begins today.
Neither the conflict involving Iran nor US-China relations saw a breakthrough on Thursday, while energy prices resumed their upward trajectory, with both European natural gas and oil prices rising by nearly 5%. Meanwhile, developed market bond yields swiftly surpassed the record levels reached the day before: US 10-year Treasury yields climbed as high as 5.21% intraday, while long-term sovereign bond yields across virtually all eurozone countries also advanced to multi-year highs.
No change in the Middle East, energy prices continue to rise
The two major geopolitical standoffs shaping market sentiment saw no meaningful progress. Xi Jinping's visit to Washington has so far produced little more than symbolic formalities, with no substantive developments, either positive or negative. As for the conflict between Iran and the US, although negotiations are taking place in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, they have yet to show any signs of progress. Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the US has not eased its maritime blockade against the Persian state.
Energy markets remained under pressure, with WTI crude rising 3% on Thursday to nearly USD 95 per barrel, while Brent climbed 4% to above USD 107 per barrel. European natural gas prices (TTF) also staged a nearly 5% surge, approaching EUR 76/MWh. Although similar, or even slightly higher, price levels were seen last week, markets had appeared to be easing earlier this week. It was also notable that the Brent-WTI spread widened to nearly USD 13 per barrel yesterday, compared with around USD 5 or less just a few days earlier and throughout much of the summer. Similar spread levels were last seen in March. The widening differential further suggests that supply tightness in the oil market is having a more pronounced impact on Europe.
European equities closed slightly lower; the BUX was no exception
The negative sentiment seen the previous day persisted across European equity markets on Thursday. The Stoxx 600 spent nearly the entire session in negative territory and ultimately closed 0.5% below its previous day's level. Most sectors ended the day lower, with the energy sector standing out as the sole notable outperformer, gaining 1.1% on the back of rising oil and gas prices, while automakers came under particular pressure, falling 1.6%. One of the day's notable laggards was Rheinmetall, whose shares declined 3.3%. Price declines were not even offset by generally positive signals from the real economy. Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index improved further from 88.8 to 89.9, extending its uninterrupted advance since April and reaching its highest level in more than three years. The Ifo reading was also consistent with other business confidence indicators published across the eurozone in September, which continued to point to a gradually improving business environment despite geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices.
The BUX was unable to buck the broader negative trend across European markets, slipping 0.3% compared with Wednesday's close. The decline was led by OTP, whose share price fell 1.2%. MOL, however, benefited from the sharp rise in energy prices during the session, gaining 1.1%. Other regional equity markets also finished the day modestly lower.
US equities also struggled
US equities were largely range-bound as well. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finished little changed from their levels two days earlier, while the Dow Jones slipped 0.3%, marking its third consecutive daily decline. Sector performance mirrored the pattern seen in Europe: the energy sector advanced, while virtually all other sectors moved lower, including technology stocks, with Nvidia shedding 0.4%. Meta and Alphabet, however, bucked the broader trend and both closed more than 4% higher.
Long-term bond yields reach fresh highs not seen in decades
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury climbed to 5.16% on Thursday, surpassing Wednesday’s 5.11% level, which had already marked its highest reading since 2007. Shorter maturities were largely unchanged, with the 2-year yield holding steady at 4.90%. Although long-term yields rose more sharply than shorter-dated ones yesterday, the US yield curve has generally flattened in recent days. The spread between 2-year and 10-year yields currently stands at 26 basis points, well below the average level of around 50 basis points seen over the past year. The upward march in long-term yields was not confined to the US. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 3.61%, setting another multi-year high, and similar moves were observed across virtually the entire eurozone. Regional markets were no exception: the Czech 10-year yield climbed nearly 10 basis points to 5.35%, while Poland’s rose 7 basis points to 6.37%, although both countries had reached slightly higher levels last week. Hungarian government bonds also followed the broader trend, with the 10-year yield rising 19 basis points to 5.85%. In contrast, short-term yields eased marginally, with 3-month and 12-month yields both declining by 1 basis point, to 5.19% and 5.11%, respectively.
There were few notable moves in the currency market. The EUR/USD exchange rate was essentially unchanged, while the Hungarian forint weakened 0.2% against the euro, closing at 366.08.
Today's highlights
Asian markets reflected optimism in Friday morning trading. As of 7:00 a.m. CET, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.3%, South Korea’s KOSPI had gained 0.9%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was also trading 1.7% higher. Japanese government bonds, however, remained under pressure, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.093%, marking another high not seen since August 1996.
No major macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for today, although Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index and US durable goods orders data will be published.
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