OTP Morning Brief: Oil Prices Continued to Fall
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OTP Morning Brief: Uncertainty stemming from the still-unresolved Middle East conflict weighed on Monday's trading
Crude oil prices rose due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the still-unresolved Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing concerns over higher CPI and potential interest rate hikes. Major European indices ended Monday's trading session with modest moves. The BUX ended in the middle of the pack among CEE stock exchanges, posting a marginal decline. Major US indices moved into negative territory. Developed market bond yields moved higher, while the dollar strengthened against the euro. The long end of the Hungarian yield curve also shifted upward, and the forint weakened against major currencies.
OTP Morning Brief: Rate hike expectations eased on signs of weakness in the US labor market, lifting markets
Friday’s biggest surprise came from labor market data that were significantly weaker than expected, prompting a reassessment of rate hike expectations and boosting equity market performance on the final trading day of the week. Several European indices, including the Stoxx Europe 600, closed at record highs. In addition, favorable economic activity data were released for Germany. The BUX also posted gains. US indices also recorded substantial gains on Friday. Weaker labor market data pushed developed market yields lower, while the US dollar weakened. The other major surprise on Friday was Hungary’s CPI reading of 1.2%, which also came in below expectations. Asian markets also followed the rally. Several key data releases will be in focus this week, including European confidence indicators, detailed Q2 GDP figures and employment data, while in the US, investors will be closely watching the latest CPI release.
European indices closed mostly higher; Mercedes and Unilever reported better-than-expected results, while ASML shares declined. Major US indices closed mixed; capital rotated out of certain technology stocks and into traditional industries. Coca-Cola reported better-than-expected results, while Boeing's loss exceeded market forecasts. US yields declined, while oil prices fell amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Today's focus will be on the Fed's interest rate decision, alongside corporate earnings reports.
European indices closed mostly higher; Mercedes and Unilever reported better-than-expected results, while ASML shares declined
European equities advanced for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, with the STOXX 600 index gaining 0.4%. Market sentiment was primarily supported by the consumer sector after several major consumer-focused companies reported better-than-expected earnings, while banking and technology stocks lagged behind. Among the top gainers, Unilever surged 9.1% after reporting second-quarter revenue growth that exceeded market expectations. Mercedes-Benz shares rose 2.9% following a 22% increase in quarterly operating profit. Luxury goods group LVMH posted 3% quarterly revenue growth, lifting its stock by 0.8%. In the technology sector, investor sentiment weakened after reports that China had begun production of its own immersion DUV lithography machines, potentially intensifying competition for European semiconductor equipment suppliers. ASML shares fell 2.9%, while weakness among Asian chipmakers added further pressure to the sector. In banking, Barclays lost 4.2% despite reporting a 17% increase in first-half profit that exceeded analysts’ forecasts.
Investors' attention turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due on Wednesday. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged; however, a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end has already been largely priced in, while the probability of a second cut is estimated at around 50%.
Sentiment was negative across the Central and Eastern European region, with the Budapest, Warsaw, and Prague indices all closing lower. Among Hungary’s blue chips, only Magyar Telekom posted gains, while the other three heavyweight stocks ended the session in negative territory.
Major US indices closed mixed; capital rotated out of certain technology stocks and into traditional industries. Coca-Cola delivered better-than-expected results, while Boeing's loss exceeded market expectations
Major US indices delivered mixed performance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones moved higher, supported by strong corporate earnings, a sharp decline in oil prices, and capital rotation from technology stocks into more traditional sectors. The S&P 500 also closed in positive territory, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped lower. Coca-Cola released its earnings report before the opening bell, beating expectations on both earnings and revenue. Management also raised its full-year guidance and noted that the FIFA World Cup had provided a valuable opportunity to strengthen its brands. The stock closed 5% higher. Boeing reported a larger-than-expected loss, although both revenue and aircraft deliveries increased from a year earlier. However, a $280 million loss related to the long-running Air Force One program weighed on results. Despite this, Boeing shares rose 4.8%. The technology sector remained under pressure, with Micron among the weakest performers, falling 8.9%, while AMD declined 8.1%.
Among macroeconomic releases, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.6% year-on-year in May, accelerating from the 1.2% increase recorded in April and surpassing market expectations of 1.3%. This marked the strongest annual pace of home price growth since August 2025. However, in real terms, home prices declined for the twelfth consecutive month, as CPI of 4.2% outpaced nominal price growth. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June, missing the market consensus of 92.3. The weaker-than-expected reading suggests that households remain cautious in their assessment of economic conditions. The present situation index deteriorated for a third consecutive month, while the expectations index remained in territory typically associated with recession risks. According to the survey, consumers viewed current business conditions less favorably and also reported a somewhat weaker assessment of the labor market. Looking ahead, respondents did not anticipate a meaningful improvement in business conditions over the next six months, although expectations for the labor market improved slightly. Households’ income expectations also moderated, but overall they remained optimistic about their personal financial situation.
US yields declined, while oil prices fell amid easing tensions in the Middle East
US Treasury yields declined further on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday and welcomed signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by nearly 4 basis points, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield declined by 4.1 basis points. The drop in yields was partly supported by lower oil prices. Market sentiment improved following reports of constructive talks between the US and Iran highlighted by President Donald Trump. Investors also responded positively to news that Iran had held discussions with Saudi Arabia and Oman regarding developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, WTI crude prices fell by 4%.
The EUR/USD pair was little changed during yesterday's trading session, with the euro posting only a marginal gain against the greenback. The Hungarian forint fluctuated around the 360 level against the euro and closed slightly below it. In the bond market, yields on maturities longer than one year declined by 4-6 basis points, with the yield on the 10-year Hungarian government bond falling to 5.41%.
Today's highlights
Trading in Asia was mixed. South Korea’s benchmark index extended its decline despite strong results from SK hynix, which nevertheless failed to meet elevated investor expectations. Japanese equities also moved lower, while Indian and Chinese indices traded in positive territory. Oil prices resumed their rise this morning following reports that Iran had launched several missiles, all of which were successfully intercepted and destroyed.
Today's focus will be on the Fed's interest rate decision, alongside corporate earnings reports, with results from Microsoft, Meta, HSBC, and Procter & Gamble among the key highlights.
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