OTP Morning Brief: Alphabet’s report beats expectations
Related content
OTP Morning Brief: Once again, Donald Trump’s words moved the markets
Markets were once again driven by news related to the Iran war on Wednesday. President Trump suggested that the United States could bring the conflict to an end even without an agreement with Iran. Oil prices eased toward $100 on Wednesday. The sharp rally in Asian markets was followed by a rebound in Europe. The German 10-year yield fell below 3%, while the Hungarian 10-year yield dropped below 6.9%. The U.S. equity indices continued to rise on Wednesday. U.S. retail sales rebounded in February. The ADP reported a 62,000 increase in employment, and the ISM manufacturing PMI climbed to a nearly four-year high in the United States. Hungary’s government deficit amounted to 4.7% of GDP in 2025. The U.S. March labour market report is due on Friday. Market sentiment turned by Thursday morning following remarks by Donald Trump.
OTP Morning Brief: There have been signs of a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict
Both the United States and Iran have signalled an easing of tensions. Key European and US indices, as well as stock markets in the CEE region, climbed. Headline inflation accelerated sharply in the eurozone in March, while core inflation slowed on an annual basis. In March, WTI rose by 51% and Brent by 63%. Developed economies’ bond yields fell, and the euro strengthened against the dollar. Domestic bond yields fell. The forint strengthened against the euro. The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish the government sector’s fourth-quarter balance today. In the eurozone, February’s unemployment rate will be released. In the United States, the ADP Institute will release its March employment data, and the ISM Institute’s March manufacturing index, as well as retail sales data for February, will be released.
Europe’s stock markets closed mixed yesterday. In December EZ inflation slowed as expected but core CPI was lower than thought. The National Bank of Poland left its base rate on hold. The USA’s major indices closed mixed; AMD dived after its earnings report; Alphabet's figures surpassed expectations. US services sector PMI for January was flat; private sector employment grew slower than hoped, ADP survey shows. Developed markets’ bond yields dropped. The forint strengthened against the euro; Hungary’s bond yields sank. Today industrial and retail sales data will be published in Europe, and the ECB, the BoE and Czechia’s national bank make policy decisions. The USA releases weekly jobless claims figures.
Europe’s stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday; in December EZ inflation slowed as expected but core CPI was lower than thought; the National Bank of Poland left its base rate on hold
Europe’s stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday, the Stoxx 600 index practically stagnated. The sentiment was influenced by corporate earnings reports: shares in Santander plunged 3.5% after announcing the acquisition of Webster Bank for USD 12.2 billion, but the bank reported a fourth-quarter profit of EUR 3.76 billion, beating the consensus forecast of EUR 3.41 billion, and it announced a new EUR 5 billion share buyback programme. Novo Nordisk's share price nose-dived (-18%) at one point on Wednesday as the pharmaceutical company reported a weaker-than-expected sales and profit outlook for this year due to US price pressure and the loss of exclusivity for its key products, but later it pared losses. Shares in UBS slid 6.3%, even though the bank’s fourth-quarter profit of USD 1.2 billion exceeded analysts’ expectations of USD 919 million by a large margin.
In the euro area, January inflation slowed to 1.7%, its lowest level since September 2024, from 2.0% the previous month, in line with market expectations. The details pain a mixed picture: services inflation eased to 3.2%, while the drop in energy prices accelerated (to -4.1%, from -1.9% in December). In contrast, price increases in unprocessed food (4.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.4%) speeded up, while processed food, alcohol and tobacco inflation remained at 2.1%. Core inflation declined to 2.2%, slightly below expectations of 2.3%, and to the lowest level since October 2021. At country level, HICP (the harmonised index of consumer prices) slowed in France, Spain, and Italy, while it rose slightly in Germany. Meanwhile, industrial producer prices dropped by 0.3% month-on-month in December 2025, in line with forecasts, mainly driven by lower energy prices (-1.2%) and consumer durables prices; in y-o-y terms, prices declined by 2.1%, for the fourth consecutive month
The indices of the CEE region rose on Wednesday. Hungary’s BUX outperformed, as three of its blue chips grew, only MTelekom decreased. The National Bank of Poland left its base rate at 4%, in line with market expectations, even though some analysts had expected a 25-basis-point reduction. The next inflation forecast, in March, will provide a basis for assessing whether the disinflation process is sustainable. Inflation eased to 2.4% in December, nearing the middle of the central bank's 1.5-3.5% target range.
Major US indices closed mixed; AMD plunged after its earnings report; Alphabet's figures surpassed expectations; US services sector PMI was flat in January; private sector employment grew slower than hoped, the ADP survey showed
America’s stock markets closed mixed yesterday: while the Dow rose, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell for the second day in arow. A selling wave that hit the technology sector has darkened the big picture: AMD's stock slumped 17.3% due to its weaker-than-expected first-quarter guidance, which triggered a further decline in the semiconductor industry - Broadcom and Micron's shares also slipped, while several software companies, including Oracle and CrowdStrike, continued their ailing. On the other hand, the Dow benefited from impressive corporate results such as the better-than-expected quarterly figures of Amgen (+8.2%), and Honeywell's nearly 2% gain, which was also supported by sector rotation towards value stocks. Investors awaited Alphabet's report on Wednesday and Amazon's figures, due on Thursday. In its flash report published after the close, the former beat market expectations on the profit and revenue lines, and indicated 2026 plans to almost double the amount spent on investment last year.
The ISM service sector index for the USA remained at 53.8 points in January, matching the December value, and exceeding the market expectation of 53.5 points, indicating that the sector continues to show strong expansion. Based on the sub-indices, business activity strengthened (57.4), while new orders (53.1), employment (50.3) and supplier deliveries (54.2) slowed, and price pressures continued to rise (66.6). Meanwhile, in the labour market, the private sector created only 22,000 new jobs, even though it was expected to grow by 48,000 and could add 37,000 jobs in December. Despite the pale big picture, the healthcare sector stood out with an increase of 74,000, while professional and business services hiring fell by 57,000 and manufacturing jobs shrank by 8,000 in January; the latter lost jobs every month since March 2024.
Developed markets’ yields fell; the forint strengthened against the euro; Hungary’s yields also sank
In the eurozone, annual inflation cooled to 1.7%, as expected, while headline inflation unexpectedly declined to 2.2% on the back of slowing services inflation. As a result, bond yields edged a few basis points lower, with German, Italian and French 10Y bond yields sinking by 2-3 basis points; the German yield is close to 2.85%. In the USA, long-term yields tended to nudge higher, the ten-year one drew near 4.3%. A slight dollar strengthening pushed the EUR/USD towards 1.18.
In Hungary, the persistently benign sentiment allowed the EUR/HUF to drop below 380, and benchmark bond yields fell. Investors preferred buying long-dated securities, thus the 3Y-10Y segment of the yield curve sank by 2-3 basis points, and the longer end dropped by 5-10 basis points.
Today’s highlights
Asia’s stock markets were heading down today. South Korea's index fell sharply after chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix decreased, echoing the trends in America. In Japan, Softbank shares plunged as one of its major investments, Arm, reported weaker-than-expected sales.
Today, Europe publishes industrial and retail sales data. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Czech National Bank hold interest-rate-setting meetings. The USA releases the weekly jobless claims data.
In Hungary, the ÁKK auctions 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds, offering HUF 20bn, 25bn, and 25 bn, respectively.
Get more out of your investments!
Global Markets Services
OTP Global Markets offers a broad range of services in the field of local and international money and capital markets.
Read morePrivate Banking Services
Personal care and expertise with OTP Private Banking, along with the knowledge, security, and innovations of a multinational banking group.
Read more